711
FXUS62 KTAE 250824
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

For today, we`ll start off the morning with some patchy fog across
the area which should dissipate by mid-morning. Otherwise, a very
subtle shortwave will move across southern Alabama into southwest
Georgia with a very weak surface trough / convergence zone
developing generally along and west of US 231. There may be just
enough low-level moisture and convergence to squeeze out a few
spotty light showers through the day over the western Panhandle into
southeast Alabama. Rain chances are low at around 20 percent for
these areas. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected with highs in
the mid to upper 70s.

For tonight, low rain chances at around 20 percent continue for the
western portions of the area. Another round of patchy fog is
expected with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s across the
southeast big bend to the mid 60s along the coastal panhandle where
light southerly flow will be present.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

A weak cold front dropping into the Tri-State area on Tuesday brings
increasing clouds with a slight chance (less than 25%) of showers.
Any precipitation should be light and oriented into broken SW-NE
bands that could linger into Wednesday morning. The front then
stalls just to our south before beginning to lift north as a warm
front ahead of a stronger upstream system to conclude the short-term
period.

Expect unseasonably warm and humid conditions with widespread
mid/upper 70s for highs and overnight lows mainly in the 50s. These
values are several degrees above normal for late November. Given the
increased low-level moisture amidst light/calm winds, patchy to
areas of fog are forecast along the I-10 corridor into SW GA during
the early morning hrs where local CAMs show the strongest signals.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

A series of shortwaves rotating through the base of a mean Eastern
US upper trough defines our weather during the long-term period. For
Thanksgiving, the lead shortwave dives SE from the Plains and
induces surface cyclogenesis across the TN Valley. This system
pushes a stronger cold front into the region than its aforementioned
predecessor. As a result, expect greater PoP compared to Tuesday
with a slight chance of thunder. We are currently looking at 25-50%
along/NW of a Valdosta-to-Panama City line around dinner time with
the best potential across the Wiregrass. Despite sufficient shear,
prospects on severe weather are low at this time given meager
instability. The axis of highest precipitation steadily shifts
eastward that night with full FroPa by Friday morning.

Chilly conditions then arrive to conclude the period. Widespread
highs in the 60s are forecast Friday-Saturday (isolated upper 50s),
then struggle to eclipse 60 degrees on Sunday. Expect a return to
overnight lows predominantly in the 30s via cold-air advection this
weekend. Isolated light freezes are possible across the Wiregrass.
Regardless, a north wind of around 5 mph will drop feels-like
temperatures to near or below freezing. These values re-introduce
cold weather sheltering concerns to vulnerable populations. Greater
(air temperature) freeze potential appears to hold off until Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Patchy fog is expected to develop across the region early this
morning with pockets of visibilities in the LIFR range at times.
Patchy fog is expected to dissipate in the 13z-15z time range with
VFR prevailing thereafter. There is around a 20 percent chance of
light showers around ECP and DHN this afternoon with no significant
restrictions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting light SSE winds and seas
less than 1 ft overnight.

From CWF Synopsis...Surface high pressure gives way to weak front on
Tuesday which will be accompanied a westerly wind and the potential
for isolated showers. This front then stagnates across the waters on
Wednesday before lifting north as a warm front by Thanksgiving.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast in
response to an attendant system sweeping east through the Tennessee
Valley. Cautionary conditions then arrive to close out the week with
the arrival of post-frontal northerly breezes.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Dispersions will be on the low side this afternoon across the
southeast big bend and portions of south central Georgia with light
transport winds and modest mixing heights. Otherwise, fire weather
concerns will remain low over the next few days with light winds and
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.  A few
light showers are possible in the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama today, then along the I-10 corridor Tuesday, but wetting
rains are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

After a stretch of dry weather, rain chances return to the forecast
from a couple of fronts this week - one on Tuesday (weak) and
another on Thanksgiving (stronger). However, current forecast
amounts do not warrant any flooding concerns at this time given the
expected progressive nature of these systems. The placement of
heaviest rainfall may have future riverine implications via
downstream flows from Central GA/AL. We dry out once again as the
week draws to a close.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  56  77  58 /   0   0  20  10
Panama City   76  66  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
Dothan        76  59  74  52 /  20  10  20  10
Albany        76  58  74  51 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      76  56  78  56 /   0   0  20  10
Cross City    76  48  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  74  65  76  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3