708
FXUS62 KTAE 061739
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
139 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Several showers have developed along a boundary draped from near
Tifton down to near Miramar Beach. Have increased POPs along this
corridor to match ongoing conditions. Other than minor temperature
tweaks, the ongoing forecast remains on track with showers and
storms likely to continue into the afternoon as the seabreeze
pushes inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorm activity is expected
across the area. With the upper level low out of the region, and the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building in, coverage
should be a little less widespread today compared to previous days.
Low-level flow will also be light and out of the west today so much
of the activity will generally form within the vicinity and ahead of
the seabreeze and gradually push inland through the day. Warmer
temperatures will allow greater instability to develop and the
presence of slightly drier air aloft could allow stronger wind
gusts in storms this afternoon so a brief severe storm can`t be
ruled out. This threat would be greatest along any favorable storm
mergers and/or outflow boundaries that allow storms to gain
considerable depth. Activity winds down after sunset tonight and
only concerns through the overnight would be patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Heading into this weekend, upper level ridging centered across
Mexico and the western Gulf will keep us in westerly flow aloft.  A
few shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move just north of
us, but remain close enough to keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Timing
looks to be fairly typical for summer with the chance starting in
the morning hours near the coast, then spreading inland through the
afternoon. This is not expected to be a washout all day, but
thunderstorm activity is expected to be scattered around the area,
typical of summer. High temperatures are expected to generally range
from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle
90s inland. Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the lower to
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Heading into early next week, an upper level trough is expected to
dive into the Great Lakes region with the local area near the base
of the trough. This will keep westerly flow aloft and a series of
shortwaves sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A weak surface boundary is expected to push southward
into the northern portions of our area Sunday night into Monday
morning, providing an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms
that could last deeper into the overnight on Sunday night than is
typical for summer. Deep layer shear is actually fairly impressive
for early June standards at around 30 knots, which is near the 90th
percentile. We`ll need to keep an eye on the potential for a cluster
of strong to severe storms to organize Sunday evening into Monday
morning with gusty winds, particularly across our northern counties.
A repeat performance looks possible Monday evening into Tuesday
morning as well.

For the remainder of the week, the weak boundary will not make it
through the area given that it`s early June now, and we`ll see a
continued muggy environment with precipitable water values in the
1.7 to 2 inch range, which is above average for early June. The
upper level trough over the Great Lakes will shift eastward, but
we`ll continue with light westerly to southwesterly flow aloft
locally, and coupled with the above average moisture, shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain elevated through the week. The NBM
PoPs of 80-90 percent every day may be a bit overdone, but the
overall theme of daily scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms looks reasonable. Temperatures are expected to be
within a few degrees of average for early June, generally lower 90s
for highs and low to mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Diurnally driven TSRA with highest confidence at TLH and invof
ECP/VLD will diminish around 00Z. Guidance has been biased low
recently regarding fog/low cloud restrictions around sunrise
due to the anomalously moist pattern in place. Strongest signal
around sunrise Saturday for IFR is at TLH and VLD with a period
of MVFR cigs elsewhere into the late morning/early aftn before
lifting to VFR. The pattern is favorable for VCTS again near TLH
late in the TAF period around Noon Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to
moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days.
Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the next
several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Rain chances will be a touch lower today and have a more diurnal
trend compared to recent days where activity got an earlier start.
Relatively high minimum afternoon humidities and light winds will
keep fire weather concerns mostly low the next few days. Only
concerns through the next few days will be dispersions on the
higher side and gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the weekend into
early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within any of those
showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs)
between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid
June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in
the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations.
These values are forecast to decrease the next few days thanks to
those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the
soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms.
Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with
gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the
region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  74  92  74 /  60  40  60  20
Panama City   88  77  89  78 /  50  20  40  20
Dothan        91  73  93  74 /  50  30  50  20
Albany        90  73  93  74 /  40  20  50  20
Valdosta      90  73  93  74 /  60  40  40  20
Cross City    90  72  91  73 /  50  20  30  20
Apalachicola  87  76  87  78 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...DVD