490
FXUS62 KTAE 040552
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
152 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A stalled frontal boundary draped across the area this morning is
continuing to provide a focus for convection through the near term.
Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to blossom over
the next 24+ hours with heavy rainfall remaining the primary threat.
Several rounds of heavy rainfall have already fallen across portions
of the area over the past couple of days, so additional rainfall in
those more sensitive areas will be quicker to cause flooding issues.
A swath of showers and storms is already ongoing over the Gulf and
coastal eastern Panhandle/Big Bend this morning. This complex of
storms will likely continue to migrate slowly inland and may start
impacting the Tallahassee area within the next 2 to 3 hours. If
these storms hold together and continue to produce heavy rainfall,
the Tallahassee area could start the work day fairly soggy with some
flooding already ongoing. A bit of a break is expected for the
southern zones later this afternoon, but additional shower and
thunderstorm development is expected to begin across our northern
zones later today. Where exactly any swaths of heavy rainfall set up
will largely be mesoscale-driven and depend on where the stalled
frontal boundary is and/or any other outflows from previous rounds.

Since the flood threat is expected to continue on into Tuesday, the
Flood Watch remains in effect and has been extended into Tuesday
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Chances for afternoon showers and storms remain elevated each day
through the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures warm into
the upper 80s to middle 90s across the region each afternoon and the
middle 70s each night.

An H5 ridge across the western Atlantic nudges closer to our area
starting Tuesday and will hang out through Wednesday. A weak H5 low
is forecast to spin up over portions of the Southeast. This
continues to funnel ample moisture into our area and keep rain
chances higher than normal, even by early/mid August standards. At
the surface, a stationary front slowly dissipates over us, but is
still going to be around Tuesday to focus the best chances for
showers and storms across the Florida Panhandle into the Wiregrass
of Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Beyond that, the front
dissipates, which should lead to a more summer-like pattern, if not
juiced up a bit, with late morning and afternoon showers and storms
blossoming with the daytime heating. These should be efficient rain
producers with Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) between 1.7" to
2.1", which is above normal for this time of year.

On the temperature front, daytime highs should climb into the upper
80s to middle 90s each afternoon before the showers and storms get
going; overnight lows are generally forecast to fall into the middle
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Very messy taf period is expected once again with scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected through most of the
day. Low ceilings are expected to continue across the northern sites
this morning before gradually improving to VFR mid to late morning.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected outside of convection, but expect
on and of impacts at all terminals throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breezes continue
through Tuesday before becoming more northerly Wednesday and
Thursday as a stalled front meanders south into the northeastern
Gulf. Easterly flow takes over later in the week. Late night and
morning thunderstorms will be prevalent through early Tuesday during
the late night and morning hours, when frequent lightning,
waterspouts, and reduced visibility in heavy rain should be expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A stalled cold front and a very moist air mass will support numerous
showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday, along with heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding. Due to the stabilizing effect of
clouds, along with light transport winds, pockets of poor afternoon
dispersion are expected over Panhandle and Alabama Wiregrass
districts through Tuesday. From Wednesday on, thunderstorms will
reduce to more typically scattered afternoon coverage, and
temperatures will run near normal through next weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The Flood Watch is now in effect through early Tuesday evening.
Slow-moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing a ton of
rain in a short amount of time, keeping concerns for flash
flooding in the forecast.

A stalled front continues to meander across the area to start the
week. Combine that with ample moisture available with Precipitable
Water Values (PWATs) in excess of 2", or above the 75th
percentile, and there`s the potential for torrential rain.
Sprinkle in deep warm cloud layers of 14-16k feet and efficient
warm rain processes are expected. Rain rates of 2-3" per hour are
expected within the heaviest showers and storms. An additional 1"
to 3" are possible with isolated spots of 8"+ still very much
possible, especially across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today.

On the riverine front, rises are expected along Spring Creek and the
Flint, but should remain in their banks. However, small streams and
creeks, plus urban areas, will be most prone to flash flooding.

More summer-like weather returns later this week with daily
afternoon showers and storms anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  74  91  73 /  80  40  90  30
Panama City   87  77  89  77 /  90  70  90  40
Dothan        83  72  86  71 /  90  60  90  30
Albany        84  72  89  72 /  90  60  90  50
Valdosta      90  73  92  73 /  80  40  80  40
Cross City    94  75  93  74 /  60  40  80  30
Apalachicola  88  80  89  78 /  80  50  80  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>019-027-108-112-
     114-115-118-127-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese