619
FXUS62 KTAE 171029
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Long-duration hazardous heat wave continues for much of this
  week. Heat products will keep being issued accordingly. Very
  warm nighttime temperatures offer little relief. Please exercise
  heat safety: www.weather.gov/safety/heat.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Strong-
  gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain are the
  main threats.

- Somewhat of a break in the heat wave appears to occur late
  this week, which likely opens the door for convectively active
  weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight) Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

We`re still firmly locked into this unrelenting heat wave for
much of this week. The main highlight for today is the Extreme
Heat Warning for parts of the FL Panhandle and Central FL Big Bend
where heat indices near or above 113 degrees are expected. A Heat
Advisory is in place everywhere else for heat indices between 108
& 112 degrees. These hazards go into effect from 11AM EDT/10AM
CDT to 8PM EDT/7PM CDT. Actual high temperatures are forecast to
be in the mid to upper 90s (isolated 100 is possible). Upper 70s
to around 80 degrees for overnight lows are hardly an improvement.
The only relief has to come from thunderstorms, for which
coverage looks scattered at best, primarily focusing across the
afternoon seabreeze around the I-10 corridor. Convection will be
capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Expect additional heat products to be issued through before this
weekend consisting of a likely mix between Heat Advisory and
Excessive Heat Warning for widespread dangerously high heat
indices in the 110s. High temperatures well above 90 degrees and
lows no lower than mid 70s will continue to be common with
readings around 100 degrees on Thursday. The latter appears to be
accompanied by relatively lower dew points from drier NW flow
which may confine hazardous heat mainly our FL counties.

By Friday, SW flow becomes re-established, which would allow dew
points to rebound in SE AL & SW GA, and raise heat indices closer
to advisory levels once again for perhaps the final time of this
prolonged stretch. Overall, the large-scale pattern shifts in the
second half of the long-term period as the heat wave ridge
retrogrades westward in response to a digging northern stream
upper trough across the Eastern US. This feature sends a frontal
boundary our way this weekend and serve as a catch-22 by offering
some heat relief, but also likely enhancing convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the
TAF period. PROB30 remains in place for potential thunderstorms
impacting area terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Persistent high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions
the next several days outside of thunderstorms and potentially
fair- weather morning waterspouts. Prevailing gentle to moderate
west winds are forecast with daily afternoon seabreezes across the
immediate nearshore legs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The main fire concerns continue to be hazardous heat conditions
persisting through at least mid week, daily chances for afternoon
thunderstorms, and high dispersions in SE AL and parts of SW GA
both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures well into the 90s will be common with heat
indices of 108 to 115+ degrees.

Thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning,
gusty/erratic winds, and locally wetting rains are additional
threats.

Prevailing west to NW winds are forecast outside of daily
afternoon seabreezes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance
flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise,
there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several
days. All area rivers are currently running well below action
stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  78  98  78 /  50  10  60  10
Panama City   93  82  94  82 /  20  10  40  10
Dothan        98  77  97  75 /  30  10  20  10
Albany        99  77  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      97  77  98  76 /  30  10  40  10
Cross City    95  78  94  78 /  30  10  50  20
Apalachicola  93  81  93  82 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>011-018-019-028-029-
     034-128-134.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to
     8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>017-027-108-112-
     114-115-118-127-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today through
     late tonight for FLZ112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3