534
FXUS62 KTAE 050152
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Minor changes to the forecast to reflect slightly cooler
temperatures, but this will be tempered by increasing cloud
cover overnight. Otherwise, highest confidence in fog
remains over portions of the Eastern FL Panhandle and the
Wiregrass of Southeast AL, which should be at its zenith
between 3 AM and 7 AM CDT. The aforementioned cloud cover
should keep probabilities for dense fog low, limiting
the temporal and areal extent.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Little change in the weather pattern or the air mass over the tri-
state area is expected through Saturday. Strong southerly breezes
will continue under the tight pressure gradient between a sprawling
surface high near Bermuda and a slow-moving front moving across the
Arklatex region. The southerly breezes will continually reinforce
the warm and muggy air mass across the region. A strong 500 mb high
center east of the Georgia Bight will continue as is through
tonight, then start to weaken along its western edge on Saturday.
That weakening will come too late to make much difference in our
Saturday`s sensible weather. It will still be strong and will serve
to cap the air mass, thereby preventing convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The main focus will be the potential for isolated severe
thunderstorms on Sunday. A shortwave trough will eject from the
south-central U.S. and head NE, draping a cold front across the
region. Persistent southerly flow across the CWA in the days leading
up to Sunday will have advected a warm and moist airmass, allowing
for at least weak-moderate surface-based instability, especially in
our westernmost counties. Deep layer shear appears sufficient in the
range of about ~40kts. The overall storm mode appears linear, so the
greatest threat should be straight-line wind damage in bowing
segments of the line, however moderately curved hodographs could
support some tornadic threat in quick spin-ups embedded in the line.
Regardless, the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent as
instability generally drops off, and there is still some uncertainty
on how much the line will be able to hold together as it moves
eastward. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the
western half of our CWA in a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for
severe weather in their Day 3 outlook, with the eastern half of our
CWA in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Monday looks to be the wettest day in the forecast period as the
aforementioned front is finally able to fully push through the region.
Total rainfalls will be somewhat dependent on how well the line of
showers/storms is able to hold together and how high rainfall rates
are, but regardless, 1-2 inches across the CWA seems likely with
locally higher amounts near 3-4 possible.

Following frontal passage sometime Monday night, a beautiful weather
regime sets into place. AM lows will be in the mid-high 40s through
at least Wednesday, with daytime highs generally in the high 60s/low
70s across the CWA. By Thursday, temperatures should begin gradually
ticking up, but with a much drier air mass in place (RHs ~ 30%),
temperatures will be much more comfortable when compared to the
hot/humid regime that has dominated this past week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight except for over the FL
Panhandle and into SE AL where patchy fog and low ceilings may be
possible. MVFR conditions and breezy winds are expected for most
of the area during the day tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The pressure gradient between a high pressure center over the
western Atlantic and a stationary front draped over the central
part of the Nation will keep fresh and sometimes strong southerly
breezes going through Sunday night. A sharp cold front will pass
the waters on Monday, bringing a line of strong thunderstorms. The
front will be followed by fresh or perhaps strong northerly
breezes on Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Strong southerly breezes will continue during daytime hours until
the passage of a sharp cold front on Monday. The strong breezes will
contribute to high afternoon dispersion values over inland areas
through the weekend. Temperatures will also run well above normal
until the frontal passage on Monday, and the air mass will be muggy
and moist. The front will be preceded by a slow-moving line of
strong thunderstorms that will take from Sunday afternoon through at
least midday Monday to cross all of the districts. Behind the front,
northerly breezes will bring in a much drier air mass on Monday
night and Tuesday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

About 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely across the area Sunday and
Monday with localized high-end totals of 3 to 4 inches possible.
Flooding concerns would be maximized if the line slows down across
the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama or if there are local
areas of training storms, especially given PWATs peaking between 1.5-
2". Given this, the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for our
westernmost counties with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending
eastward.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  66  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  70  81  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  67  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        91  67  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      92  67  89  67 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    92  66  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  70  77  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Oliver