530
FXUS62 KTAE 240802
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Satellite-derived PW imagery still shows a drier air mass over our
service area, with values in the 0.95-1.15 inch range. However,
moister air is lurking along and south of a line from Mobile to
Tampa. Along the AL/MS coast, PW values are near 1.5 inches. A
weak surface high over the far northeast Gulf will provide enough
southerly flow over the Panhandle to bring just enough moisture
inland to support isolated afternoon thunderstorms west of a line
from DeFuniak Springs to Ozark. Elsewhere, it will remain too dry
for convection.

Hot afternoon temperatures will trend a degree or two warmer today
compared with Friday, as a strong subtropical 500 mb ridge axis
across Cuba and the southern Gulf slowly amplifies toward the
northern Gulf Coast.

The weak low-level southerly flow into the Panhandle will favor
patchy fog in the hours leading up to sunrise this morning, and
again on Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

PM thunderstorm chances will increase a little bit each day from
Sunday through Wednesday, with most places seeing scattered
coverage by mid-week.

A low-amplitude 500 mb ridge axis will reach peak sharpness and
pass across our region on Sunday night. After that, it will move
off to the east, and the tri-state area will come under the
southern periphery of mid-latitude west-southwest flow aloft.
Meanwhile, weak surface high pressure over the northeast Gulf on
Sunday and Monday will move east of Florida on Tuesday, allowing
southerly 1000-700 mb flow to strengthen a bit after the weekend.
In this southerly flow, the air mass will moisten with each
successive day. By Tuesday and Wednesday, surface dewpoints will
commonly be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and Precipitable Water
(PW) values will have moistened into the 1.6-1.8 inch range. These
values should readily support scattered coverage of deep, moist
convection beyond the holiday weekend. The two low-level foci for
surface- based lift will be the seabreeze front of course, as well
as a wavering and sometimes diffuse frontal boundary over central
Georgia and Alabama. Throughout the Sunday through Wednesday
period, moderate convective instability and modest deep- layer
shear will multi-cell thunderstorm clusters with isolated
damaging wind gusts, especially once convective cold pools start
pushing clusters more rapidly across the landscape.

The more borderline moisture values at first on Sunday could
actually aid gusty convective winds due to dry- air entrainment
and evaporative cooling within thunderstorm downbursts, creating a
more conditional setup for severe storms (SPC has a Marginal Risk
over inland areas in their new Day 2 outlook for Sunday).

On Thursday and Friday, upper heights will start to lower as an
upper trough carves out somewhere between the Great Lakes and the
U.S. Eastern Seaboard. This may sharpen the stalled front over
central AL/GA and start to push it further south, while increasing
our flow aloft as it becomes more cyclonically curved. For these
reasons, deeper lift will become easier to achieve. So scattered
convective coverage will continue on Thursday and Friday. The
increase in organized lift later in the week will cause
convection to less reliably favor just the afternoon/evening
hours, spreading thunder chances into the overnight and morning
hours too.

Daytime temperatures will cool back closer to normal late in the
week, as convection take the edge off heat, as upper heights start
to fall, and as a cold front eases in from the north late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Outside of some brief MVFR vsby restrictions around sunrise at
KTLH and KECP due to fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

A weak high pressure center will be located over the northeast
Gulf through Monday. High pressure will move east of Florida on
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting development of gentle southerly
breezes across the eastern Gulf. Nearshore afternoon seabreezes
will prevail each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

The main concerns will be a lingering dry air mass today, hot
daytime temperatures running 4 to 8 degrees above normal through
at least Monday, and the return of isolated thunderstorms over
inland districts today and Sunday. The isolated nature of
thunderstorms this weekend against the backdrop of a drier air
mass could increase efficiency of lightning in starting fires. In
addition, pockets of high dispersion will occur each afternoon
over Alabama and Georgia districts. Beyond Monday, the air mass
will moisten a little more each day, and scattered coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms is expected past the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Flooding is not expected to be a concern through next Friday.

That said, afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will ramp up
starting Sunday. Scattered activity will affect the entire region
from Wednesday on. Short-lived and localized runoff issues are
possible due to intense rainfall in the cores beneath stronger
thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  70  95  72 /   0   0  20  10
Panama City   89  75  88  75 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        93  69  93  72 /  10  10  30  10
Albany        95  71  94  72 /   0  10  30  20
Valdosta      97  70  95  71 /   0   0  20  10
Cross City    95  68  93  69 /  10  10  20  10
Apalachicola  86  74  85  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner