784
FXUS62 KTAE 041409
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
909 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 909 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

 - Patchy fog will make a return on Wednesday morning, mainly
   along and east of the Florida-Georgia Parkway. Morning fog
   will expand across more of the region on Thursday and Friday
   mornings.

 - A gradual warming trend will start today and continue through
   Saturday. A strong cold front is expected on Sunday.

 - There is a low chance (20-40 percent) of showers and
   thunderstorms for our Central Time Zone and western Georgia
   counties late Friday into Saturday. Rain should be spotty and
   therefore offer only limited drought relief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and through Wednesday morning)
Issued at 205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Fair weather is expected. From a sensible standpoint, the main
things will be the start of a warming trend this afternoon, and
the re-emergence of morning fog over our eastern counties on
Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure over GA/SC today will elongate into an
east-west ridge axis extending across far south GA by Wed
morning. Low-level flow south of that ridge axis will become
easterly, albeit on the light side. This will start to push
shallow low- level moisture from near St. Augustine (where the 1
am ET dewpoint is 52F) westward across I-75 this PM. This initial
infusion of shallow low-level moisture under clear skies with warm
air aloft will is favorable for patchy fog development late
tonight and Wed morning, mainly along and east of the Florida-
Georgia Parkway corridor.

Otherwise, an impressively strong upper level high pressure axis
extends across the northern Gulf Coast right now. 500 mb heights
in excess of 5900 meters will continue through Wed morning. With
such correspondingly warm air aloft and the end of low- level
cold/dry advection, a warming trend will get underway after
sunrise this morning. High temps this afternoon will run about 5
degrees warmer than yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

The strong upper level ridge axis across the northern Gulf Coast
on Wednesday will weaken and retreat southward into the tropics on
Thursday and Friday. This will start to open us up to zonal
westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will
redevelop east of the Carolinas on late Thursday, bringing a turn
to southeast breezes on Friday. The increase in tropical maritime
influence on our air mass will raise surface dewpoints into the
slightly muggy 60s on Friday and Saturday and keep the warming
trend going. By Friday and Saturday, the main aspect of the warmup
will be on warmer nights, owing to the moister air mass.

In the zonal flow aloft on Friday, a fast-moving shortwave will
zip by way north of the region on Friday night. This could give a
modest boost to southerly low-level flow, and models suggest that
a period of confluent southerly low-level flow in the re-moistened
air mass could be enough to squeeze out a few showers from late
Friday through Saturday morning, especially from the FL Panhandle
across SE Alabama and into Chattahoochee Valley of western
Georgia. In these areas, Precipitable Water (PW) could touch the
1.5-inch threshold for contributing to deep, moist convection.
Weak convective instability is almost certain, with quite a few
ensemble members bringing moderate convective instability to our
Central Time Zone counties. In a regime with southerly low-level
flow and westerly mid-level flow, there will be some deep- layer
shear to organize convective elements. This aspect may need to be
watched for isolated strong storms. What is lacking is jet stream
dynamics and larger-scale lift. Therefore, rainfall amounts will
most commonly be under one- quarter inch, but there is ensemble
support for isolated totals closer to one-half inch.

The longwave jet stream pattern across the CONUS will quickly and
greatly amplify over the weekend, with an amplified upper trough
carving out on Sunday over the eastern half of the continental
U.S.. This will drive a strong cold front southeastward across our
service area later Sunday. 1000-700 mb flow in advance of the
front will be only a little south of west, so we will not be able
to pump in deeper moisture in advance of this front.

Behind the front, it will be breezy on Sunday night and Monday.
The coldest air mass so far this fall season will arrive next
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

A TEMPO group for the VLD terminal through around 14z for the
possibility of IFR vsbys during the hours surrounding daybreak.
Winds will become easterly this afternoon remaining light around 5
kts. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. There is a chance for patchy fog early Wednesday morning
for the VLD terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Fresh northeast breezes this morning will decrease this afternoon
and become more easterly tonight through Thursday, as high
pressure over Georgia and South Carolina settles south to the I-10
corridor. High pressure will redevelop east of the Carolinas on
Thursday night, bringing a turn to gentle and moderate southeast
breezes on Friday, clocking southerly on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

A high pressure center over Georgia and South Carolina today will
settle south directly across the districts on Wednesday. Light winds
in proximity to high pressure will hold daytime dispersion in fair
to poor ranges.

Light east to southeast flow starting tonight across our Florida
districts will start to introduce more moisture into the air mass.
So after another very dry afternoon today, Min RH will start a slow
climb areawide on Wednesday and Thursday. The increase in moisture
and a stable air mass will also support early morning fog starting
Wednesday morning east of U.S. 19. Morning fog will expand across
more of the districts on Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday
into Saturday, mainly along and west of a Panama City to Albany
line. Rainfall should be spotty and will therefore average out to
about one-quarter inch or less. However, isolated spots could get
around one-half inch. The spotty nature of the rain will offer
only limited drought relief at best.

In most places, drought conditions will worsen over the next 7
days. For more drought information, visit
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  48  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  54  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        73  45  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      76  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  58  73  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner