856
FXUS62 KTAE 172342
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Adjusted rain chances across the region to reflect the latest
radar trends. Some CAM guidance suggests a bit more activity in
Florida this evening, so upped POPs slightly there to account for
that potential overnight. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is
largely on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Although the weak tropical-like disturbance has shifted to
Louisiana this aftn, there is still lingering tropical moisture
noted across the CWA (PWATS of around 2.00 inches). Thus scattered
showers and thunderstorms have been across portions of the region
from south to north resulting in brief light-moderate rainfall
and gusty winds. Tonight, this activity should wane with the
majority of the convection likely lingering just offshore/near the
coastal zones. Persistent moisture will result in another of
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow aftn, more or less a return of
the summertime pattern.

Will see a slight uptick in daytime temps tomorrow given a high
pressure system across the Atlantic commencing to nudge into the
eastern zones. Although lower 90s will be commonplace, low-mid 90s
will be possible across the far eastern zones courtesy of the
aforementioned UA ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A ridge of high pressure will be expanding over the FL Peninsula
into the Gulf for the weekend into the start of next week. This
will continue the trend for temperatures being in the upper 90s
for the afternoon hours. At the surface, the Bermuda High will
expand towards the Gulf, shifting our winds to be northwesterly.
This will bring in slightly drier air, lowering our rain chances
for the weekend and beginning of next week. However, by mid-week,
a shortwave trough will develop, breaking through the high
pressure. Moisture will return, increasing our rain chances and
lowering temperatures back to the mid-90s.

So, temperatures through the period will be in the upper 90s with
heat indices ranging from 103-112 by Monday. Overnight lows will
be maintained in the mid-upper 70s. PoPs for this weekend will be
range from 30-50 percent. PoPs begin to increase on Monday through
the end of the term with values ranging from 50-70 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible this
through about 03Z-04Z, so included some VCSH/VCTS to account for
that possibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected
to prevail through much of the TAF period with a light to moderate
southerly breeze.

A few showers and storms are expected again Friday afternoon.
However, the coverage is uncertain as some drier air will begin to
work back over the area, so we`ll monitor those trends in
subsequent TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Generally light southerly winds and 3-4 foot seas will subside as
the weekend starts. Seas will be 1-2 feet and winds are expected
to shift westerly for next week as an upper level ridge builds
over the Gulf leading to favorable boating conditions for the
start of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Lingering moisture is expected to prevail across the area,
resulting in low fire weather concerns. Southerly transport winds
of 10-15 kts are expected Friday afternoon, and will veer to the
southwest on Saturday afternoon. An uptick in daytime temperatures
will commence on Friday with above average temperatures expected
by the weekend through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall continues through Friday
for mainly our FL counties, and includes SE Alabama. All this due
to Invest AL93, which continues to move westward today towards the
Louisiana Coast. Heavy rainfall can occur with
showers/thunderstorms that develop from this system with 1-3
inches possible through Friday. This could lead to localized flash
flooding in places of poor drainage and urban areas.

The subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin
to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall
will lower as well, though this is expected to be shortlived as
moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  93  75  96 /  30  80   0  40
Panama City   79  91  79  92 /  20  60  10  40
Dothan        74  95  74  96 /  30  60   0  40
Albany        73  95  74  97 /  30  60   0  30
Valdosta      75  95  74  97 /  40  60   0  30
Cross City    73  94  74  95 /  10  60  10  40
Apalachicola  80  89  79  91 /  30  70  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Friday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Bowser
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery