757
FXUS62 KTAE 211906
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong
  to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
  Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally
  heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that
  develop.

- The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical
  summertime pattern returning early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down
over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties.
We`ll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to
our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes
that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help
generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this
afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection
could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and
instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which
will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level
lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft,
which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon
and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the
overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into
our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and
storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our
area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more
confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While
soundings aren`t quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind
and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe
weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak
into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory
levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day
without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still
be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index
values of 102-107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2
to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is
expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday,
however, we`ll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our
west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark
better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it
feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will
still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values
will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots.

Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our
west, and we`ll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we`ll
continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our
rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer
pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
of 102-108.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected to blossom across the
area this afternoon and evening. Outside of convection, generally
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the
overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could
move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty
winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms.
Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly
breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around
1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue
through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will
remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is
anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and
dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in
over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and
Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several
inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some
nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying
or poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  74  93  74 /  50  40  70   0
Panama City   90  77  90  78 /  20  40  50  10
Dothan        94  73  94  73 /  50  50  10   0
Albany        96  73  95  73 /  80  80  20   0
Valdosta      95  73  94  73 /  70  50  60   0
Cross City    92  75  91  74 /  40  20  70  40
Apalachicola  90  78  89  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young