112
FXUS62 KTAE 261251
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
851 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major updates
were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The day starts off with some patchy fog this morning, mainly from
the Flint River Valley into SE AL, which will dissipate by 9 AM ET/
8 AM CT. Shower and thunderstorm activity off the coast should be
sparser this morning compared to Friday, but pattern is favorable
for a waterspout of two.

The mean flow in the 1000-700 hPa layer will be southwest around 5-
10 kts today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure transits the region
as the mid-level subtropical high builds in from the east, with 500
hPa heights increasing to 595 Decameters. Notably lower PWAT this
afternoon due to subsidence near I-75 into the portions of the FL
Big Bend ~1.6" with higher values closer to 2" from SE AL into the
FL Panhandle. Mixed Layer CAPE of 1-2k J/kg will be present from
the I-10 corridor southward and into portions of SE AL, with very
little instability outside of this area. Highest PoPs will focus
near the Suwanee Valley and west of the Ochlockonee River in the FL
Counties into portions of SE AL where seabreeze forcing is greatest,
but generally max out around 30%, which is well below climatology
given ridging aloft. There will be added DCAPE today, so isolated
tstorms could produce wind gusts around 40 mph. 850 hPa temps near
20C invof I-75 support mid to upper 90s, tapering down to low 90s
collocated with higher PoPs, and mid-90s elsewhere away from the
Gulf coast. There is a strong signal for mixing today, especially
near the AL/GA border eastward, where a deeper boundary layer is
modeled along with drier air aloft. So despite higher max temps
compared to Friday, we`re falling short of bonafide heat advisory
criteria (Apparent Temperature AOA 108F), with isolated occurrences
possible east of US-231 in the FL Counties.

The rip current risk is forecast to be moderate at all beaches
today, with a low probability of a high risk along Walton County.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A few minor changes in the trend are noted from this time
yesterday. The bulk of the heat remains in the Sunday through
Tuesday timeframe as the strong 500 mb height center slides
through the southeast heading west towards the southern Plains.
The hottest day remains Monday where highs are forecast in the low
100s for most locations away from the coast. Heat advisories will
likely be needed Sunday through Tuesday for heat indices of 108F+
and perhaps localized extreme heat warnings for heat indices of
113F+. Rain chances are limited Sunday and Monday as strong
subsidence is provided in conjunction with the high pressure.

Beginning Tuesday, global models are in decent agreement of
showing a trough moving southwest from the Carolinas towards the
northern Gulf coast. PWATs ramp up to over 2 inches along and
ahead of this feature. Scattered thunderstorms are progged to
develop as it heads towards the coast, possibly providing an
increase in cloud cover which may limit max temperatures Tuesday,
especially further northeast in the CWA if this solution
verifies. In fact, highs Tuesday have trended slightly cooler (1-2
degrees cooler but readings still in the upper 90s) especially in
the I75 corridor. As the trough moves west Wednesday and
southerly flow takes hold, diurnal seabreeze activity should
penetrate well inland with rain chances essentially back to norms.
Highs Wednesday will continue the slightly cooler trend with
readings in the mid 90s. Despite southerly flow Thursday and
Friday, GFS shows dry low/mid levels as the subtropical ridge
builds in behind the departing trough. Rain chances, though in the
50-70% range currently, may be trended down should this occur.

Heat advisories may still be needed towards the end of the week
with heat indices of 107-110F in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Main concern this morning will be some restrictions to LIFR at DHN
in fog/low clouds, which should dissipate by 13Z. Cannot rule out
brief restrictions elsewhere, but THE probability is low. Meanwhile
at ECP, a PROB30 for TS at around sunrise. This aftn and evening,
the greatest chance of TS albeit small is at ECP and TLH, with a
PROB30 group. At DHN, expect VCTS at in the evening, but a stray TS
is possible over the terminal. Cannot rule out some additional
patchy fog tonight, but the probability is low toward end of TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Favorable marine conditions are on tap for the next few days as
high pressure dominates. Southeast winds today will give way to
northerly winds beginning Sunday as high pressure slides to the
west of the marine waters. Convection over the waters for the next
several days will be isolated at best before a more unsettled
pattern develops mid week. Rain chances ramp back up towards the
end of the period. Generally, wave heights will remain in the 1 to
3 foot range with locally higher winds and seas in and near
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Surface high pressure crests over the region today which leads to
lighter transport winds, so despite mixing heights nearing
5,000 feet, low dispersions will persist into this afternoon in
the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, increasingly dry and hot weather
leading into next week. Precipitation chances will be below
average, focused in the FL Counties during the afternoon and
evening in association with the seabreezes. Thunderstorms will be
more isolated, but may still lead to briefly erratic and gusty
winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Rain chances are on the decline over the next several days as deep
layer high pressure builds through the southeast US. Rainfall
amounts through Monday will average a quarter inch or less.
Heading into Tuesday, changes are afoot as high pressure
relinquishes control to a trough of low pressure sliding
southwest from the Carolinas. Rain chances ramp back up to more
seasonal levels beginning Tuesday. WPC has outlooked our area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday. There are no
immediate flash or riverine flooding concerns through the next few
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  77  98  79 /  20  10  20   0
Panama City   91  78  95  80 /  20  10  10   0
Dothan        94  74  97  77 /  20  10  10   0
Albany        96  76  99  79 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      98  77 100  79 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    95  76  99  78 /  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  89  77  93  80 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Scholl