273
FXUS62 KTAE 091815
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Cooler temperatures are on the way in the wake of today`s cold
   front. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon and on Friday
   with 20 to 30 mph gusts forecast.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Thursday and into the
   weekend, boaters should check marine forecasts before
   departing.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A cold front pushing through the area today will continue to bring
drier and cooler conditions to the region into the weekend. A few
showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and again
tomorrow in the wake of the front, but meaningful rainfall is not
expected. Most of our area continues to experience moderate to
severe drought, and portions of south Georgia have been upgraded
to extreme drought with today`s release of the latest U.S. Drought
Monitor.

After Friday, there is no rainfall in the forecast for the
upcoming week. Behind today`s front, high temperatures are
forecast to cool into the 70s and low 80s before beginning a
gradual warming trend once again. Low temperatures will actually
be lowest over the weekend once more dry air moves in and cloud
cover moves out, actually dropping into the 50s for most of the
area. Low temperatures will also begin a warming trend as moisture
begins to return to the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold front is currently moving through the Tri-State region
currently with a northeasterly push of gusty winds in its wake with
gusts 18-22 knots currently per surface observations. Widespread
MVFR to high IFR cigs has enveloped the entire area with TAFs
reflecting the degraded flight conditions through the afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered showers, and a few lightning strikes as
well, are popping up around ECP currently as well as southwest GA
southward to the Gulf coast. Gusty winds and convection will persist
into the mid evening hours before convection decreases and winds
decrease to around 10 knots. Low cigs will favor ABY/TLH/VLD
overnight while DHN/ECP should lift to VFR tonight. Friday, isolated
convection will favor the I75 corridor and southeast Big Bend with
cigs possibly holding in MVFR category at VLD through the end of the
TAF period. Gusty winds will return around daybreak Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

East to northeast winds are forecast to increase to advisory
levels beginning this afternoon in the wake of a cold front with
some gusts to gale force also possible. These breezy conditions
will cause seas to increase as well, especially offshore, and
generally last into the weekend. Conditions are forecast to
gradually improve late weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A cold front moving through the region today will bring drier and
cooler conditions through the weekend and into early next week. A
few showers and storms may be possible this afternoon and again
tomorrow in the wake of the front, but little to no meaningful
rainfall accumulation is expected. Dispersions may be high in spots
over the weekend with breezy northeasterly transport winds
prevailing and mixing heights gradually increasing each day the
front moves further away. Persistent dry conditions and breezy winds
will likely lead to elevated fire weather concerns, although
relative humidity is forecast to remain above critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
lesser coverage is forecast on Friday. However, rainfall amounts
are not forecast to be significant enough to cause any issues and
drought conditions will likely persist.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  76  63  80 /  30  20  10   0
Panama City   64  79  63  83 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        60  75  59  80 /  20  20   0   0
Albany        58  74  60  79 /  40  30  10   0
Valdosta      61  74  62  79 /  40  30  20  10
Cross City    66  79  65  81 /  20  20  20  10
Apalachicola  66  78  64  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon to
     8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-
     772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs