115
FXUS62 KTAE 221929
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
329 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected for the next
  several days. A High Risk of rip currents is forecast the next
  several day at all area beaches along with High Surf. It is
  strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please
  heed the beach flags and advice from local officials.

- Hazardous heat returns with a low (less than 20%) chance of
  needing Heat Advisories later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Rain chances are forecast to quickly diminish after this evening
as Tropical Storm Bertha moves further west and away from our
area. High pressure is forecast to move in from the east in its
wake, leading to dry and hot conditions for Thursday under mostly
sunny skies. Highs on Thursday are forecast in the low to mid 90s
with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High pressure overhead will lead to hot and dry conditions heading
into the weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s
to near 80. The upper-level ridging begins to shift westward over
the weekend, leaving northwesterly to northerly flow aloft
overhead. A couple of fronts are forecast to stall to the north of
the region through mid week next week, and this
north/northwesterly flow may help showers and storms developing
along this feature to drift southward into our area at times.
Additionally, the usual afternoon seabreeze convection will enter
the forecast again Sunday onward with the weakening influence of
the suppressing high pressure. High temperatures are forecast to
soar into the mid to upper 90s across most of the area next week,
and heat advisories may be required for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Scattered showers associated with peripheral rainbands from TS
Bertha will continue through this evening as TS Bertha continues
moving west into Louisiana. MVFR conditions are possible,
especially near any rain showers. Expect southerly wind gusts
around 20-30 kts to continue until around sunset. Overnight, winds
go calm or near calm across our eastern terminals of ABY/TLH/VLD.
Given the moisture surge off the Gulf the last few days, should
these terminal experience clear skies overnight then patchy fog
may develop. Otherwise, conditions improve tomorrow with
decreasing winds and VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha will continue moving away from the
northeast Gulf waters through Thursday. Weather conditions will
continue to improve this evening and tonight. Seas will be slower
to improve, with seas taking until late Thursday morning to drop
below 7 feet west of Apalachicola. By Friday night and Saturday, a
small bubble of high pressure will settle over the northeast
Gulf. Westerly flow will increase Sunday as high pressure moves to
the Southeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Overall, fire weather concerns remain low over the next several
days. High pressure moving in behind Tropical Storm Bertha will lead
to diminished rain chances and hot temperatures, although relative
humidities should remain well above critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The gusty tropical rain showers of Tropical Storm Bertha should
continue to diminish and shift off to the west through the
evening. No meaningful rainfall is expected through the rest of
the week with only a slight chance for showers and storms
returning next week. Rivers remain in good shape, and no river
flooding is expected.

Coastal flooding from Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to
improve through the rest of the afternoon as the storm moves
further away and the low tide cycle takes over. As such, the
coastal flood advisory has been allowed to expire. No additional
coastal flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  91  77  92 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        74  95  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
Albany        74  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      73  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  96  74  96 /   0  20   0  10
Apalachicola  80  91  77  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ751-752-770-
     772.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ755-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield