590
FXUS62 KTAE 250251
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Temperatures have been cooling off a little quicker than forecast,
this resulted in a nudging of the overnight hourly temperature
forecast. However, the overnight low temp is still expected to be
on track as temps approach the dew point and the cooling
stabilizes. Patchy fog was also extended spatially with most of
the region having the potential to see patchy fog overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure continues to slide off to the east and will be off
the Atlantic coast of Florida by the end of the day Monday. Winds
will become more southerly overnight, bringing a moist return flow
back to the area. This starts tonight along the Florida Panhandle
and moves inland through the overnight into Monday. Before this
happens, calm winds and clear skies will allow for a shot at
radiational cooling, especially over the easternmost parts of the
area. Thus, for the Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia, have
leaned more heavily on MOS guidance, yielding lows in the lower
40s in the southeast Big Bend with mid-40s elsewhere. Farther west
where the return flow gets going, lows will only fall into the
50s, closer to NBM guidance. With the moisture return, fog will
develop across the area overnight into early Monday morning. Some
of the fog could be locally dense as HREF probabilities for
visibilities less than 1 mile are around 50 to 70 percent.

Heading into Monday, a very subtle shortwave moves across southern
Alabama into southwest Georgia with a very weak surface trough /
convergence zone developing generally along and west of US 231.
There may be just enough low-level moisture and convergence to
squeeze out a few spotty light showers through the day over the
western Panhandle into southeast Alabama. Kept rain chances around
20 percent for these areas. Elsewhere should stay dry with highs
in the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

The shortwave and surface trough falls apart Monday evening with
just a few lingering showers early in the evening over the
Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Otherwise, our attention turns to
the cold front arriving Tuesday. Upper-level forcing is quickly
departing this front with the surface low well into Ontario and
Quebec by Tuesday afternoon. Thus, lift will be very minimal and
may only eke out a couple light showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly
along and north of I-10.

Prior to the front`s arrival, Monday night may feature another
round of fog, mainly over the eastern portions of our area. Lows
will be in the upper 40s in the southeast Big Bend with mid-50s to
lower 60s elsewhere. Tuesday`s highs will peak in the upper 70s to
near 80 with lows Tuesday night ranging from the upper 40s in the
northwestern corner of our area to the lower 60s in the southeast
corner.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

A brief lull is expected on Wednesday with high pressure
traversing the eastern US before exiting off the mid-Atlantic
coast by Wednesday night. The next cold front arrives Thursday
into Friday, but the best forcing remains well north of our area.
Thus, we`ll only see scattered showers with a thunderstorm
possible. There are timing differences among the models, however,
which has implications on severe weather potential. If the front
comes through during the afternoon, there may be some instability
to work with along with ample deep layer shear, which would yield
a low-end risk for strong to severe storms. If the front is
delayed and comes through during the overnight, instability is
much lower and the chances for strong to severe storms would
decrease. We`ll keep an eye on this late week system. Regardless,
colder air makes a return Friday into next weekend with highs
falling back into the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR TAFs will resume through around 08-09z before
reductions in visibilities begin across all sites except for KECP.
All other sites will reach at least MVFR visibilities with IFR-LIFR
possible at KTLH and KVLD. There may be occasional LIFR CIGs at KTLH
and KVLD, though some uncertainty surrounds this. VFR conditions

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Some of the hi-res guidance suggests that there could be a window
of near-cautionary level winds on Monday over the far western
waters as a weak trough moves over the area. Confidence isn`t high
enough to go SCEC on this package, but something that will have to
monitored by later shifts if trends continue.

From CWF Synopsis... Generally fair boating weather continues for
the next few days, though western waters may see a slight bump up
in winds tomorrow. However, winds are currently expected to stay
below cautionary levels through late week with seas around 1 to 2
feet. A cold front passes through the area Tuesday, which will
clock winds around from the south to out of the west by Tuesday
night and Wednesday. A stronger cold front moves through the
marine area late in the week, which will bring cautionary to
advisory level winds and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Generally light south to southwest transport winds on Monday will
clock around out of the west to northwest Tuesday as a cold front
passes through the area. With the light winds, dispersions will be
fair across the area, though low in the southeast Big Bend, on
Monday. Dispersions improve Tuesday and Wednesday as transport
winds increase. A few showers are possible in the Florida
Panhandle and southeast Alabama Monday, then along the I-10
corridor Tuesday, but wetting rains are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Rainfall will be very light over the next several days with
widespread totals less than a quarter of an inch expected. Thus,
no flooding concerns are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   47  75  59  78 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   59  76  66  77 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        50  74  59  75 /   0  20  20  10
Albany        45  74  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      45  75  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    42  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  73  65  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young