674
FXUS62 KTAE 070636
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

A warm front draped over the southeast US along with a couple
shortwaves riding along the Gulf Coast will help keep things
unsettled today as we begin to enter the wet pattern. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible at any point today
within the moist air mass characterized by PWATs of 1.4 to 1.6
inches. One round of showers and a few storms will come through this
morning from the west. These showers and storms are forecast to
weaken as they move farther to the east and may break up upon
reaching the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. The second round is the
redevelopment of a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening
as the second shortwave approaches. The rain isn`t expected to be
particularly heavy, and severe weather is not anticipated either.
However, a few storms could produce some gusty winds if enough
instability is realized. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s
for most, though upper 80s are expected in the eastern Big Bend and
I-75 corridor where there may be a bit more sunshine. There should
be a relative lull overnight, but a few isolated showers can`t be
ruled out. Lows will be quite muggy in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

A brief bout of nearly zonal H5 flow is expected Thursday as an H5
trough begins to cut-off from the main flow across Arkansas and
Louisiana later this week and into the weekend. This cut-off low
will meander across the Deep South and Lower Mississippi River
Valley, which will keep us on the eastern side of it, or the wetter
side. As such, rain chances remain high starting Thursday and
lasting into the first half of next week. The period of most concern
is currently centered around Sunday/Monday thanks to favorable 250mb
and 500mb jet dynamics allowing an area of low pressure to form in
the northeastern Gulf. This will help focus a band of locally heavy
rain along both the warm front across southern Georgia and Alabama
and just east of the attendant cold front. Model guidance continues
to suggest our area will be the focal point for all of that, but the
finer details (i.e. the location and just how much) won`t be fully
known until we get closer to Sunday and Monday.

The slow moving nature of the H5 cut-off low and surface low
means the rain is forecast to pile up quickly. Widespread rainfall
totals have increased to 4" to 8" across much of the region with
12"+ very much on the table for someone along the northern Gulf
coast in either our area or Mobile`s. Again, the exact location of
that won`t be fully known until those finer details are worked out.
That much rainfall would lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding concerns, which is talked about more in the Hydro
discussion below.

It`s also worth mentioning that there is also the potential for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday and again this weekend.
Thursday`s severe potential is largely predicated on what happens to
our west Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. If we`re able
to see ample sunshine for a while Thursday morning into the
afternoon, then a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Any storms that are able to develop will be capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts along with hail. As such, the
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of our area under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Thursday into Thursday night.
The weekend potential remains very uncertain due to all the rain we
currently have forecast. Still, a surface low moving inland from the
Gulf coupled with 35-40 knot 850mb jet means there is the potential
for a few strong, perhaps severe, thunderstorms. As with the rain
potential, the finer details in this won`t be known until we get
closer to the weekend.

Rain chances begin to decrease, but still remain between 40 to 60
percent, from west to east early next week as the cut-off H5 low
finally begins to lift out of the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

VFR cigs/vsbys are generally expected over the next 24 hours. A
complex of SHRA with embedded TSRA is expected to slowly weaken as
it approaches DHN, ECP, and ABY around 10-11z. It`s uncertain how
far east this makes it, and so only have PROB30 groups for TLH and
VLD for any possible redevelopment of TSRA. Some patchy fog is
possible this morning near VLD around daybreak. Winds will
generally be light and variable through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

High pressure remains in control over the northeastern Gulf.
Southerly winds develop later today as the high slides to our east
with light to moderate southwesterly winds anticipated Thursday and
Friday. Moderate, to perhaps fresh, southerly to southwesterly winds
develop over the week as an area of low pressure develops in the
northeastern Gulf. Rain chances increase later today and remain high
through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Fair to good dispersions are expected each day given light transport
winds and lower mixing heights. Transport winds start off easterly
to northeasterly this morning, then become westerly to southwesterly
over the next several days. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, but more widespread rain is expected from Thursday
onward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Forecast rainfall totals over the next seven days continue to
increase across the region. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy
rain are expected to arrive starting later this week and linger into
the first half of next week. Friday through Monday is the current
window for when the most rain is expected to fall.

Widespread rainfall totals of 4" to 8" is now forecast to fall over
much of the region over the next 7 days. It`s worth noting that this
does lean on the higher side of ensemble guidance, but still well
below some of the most extreme solutions, which are showing double
digit rainfall totals. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has
maintained several days of a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall starting tomorrow and continuing through the
weekend. Upgrades to the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs) are
likely in the coming days as confidence increases with regards to
where the heaviest rain will set up later this week into the weekend.

On the riverine front, 4" to 8" of rain would cause rivers to rise
throughout the area, but most, if not all, should remain below
Action Stage. It helps that we`ve been so dry recently and that a
number of rivers are running near their low water values. If some of
the more extreme (double digit) rainfall solutions verify, or wave
after wave of rain impacts the same basin for multiple hours/days
then riverine flooding would become a concern later this weekend
into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  69  86  67 /  40  20  80  50
Panama City   84  70  81  69 /  40  30  80  60
Dothan        82  66  81  65 /  60  30  90  60
Albany        83  66  84  65 /  60  30  80  60
Valdosta      86  67  88  67 /  50  10  80  50
Cross City    88  68  88  67 /  50  20  60  30
Apalachicola  82  72  81  69 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Reese