828
FXUS62 KTAE 101942 CCA
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will focus generally
east of ECP-ABY line, with a slow start by late this afternoon
and dissipating shortly after sunset. The main concern will be
heavy rainfall with this area under a marginal (Level 1 of 4)
excessive rainfall potential. The flash flood potential remains
low with nuisance flooding the main concern, especially in the
I-75 corridor and urban centers of aforementioned area. Patchy
fog is possible again late tonight into Monday morning, mainly
from the Flint River Valley into SE AL and the FL Panhandle.

Anomalously moist air mass overspreads the region on Monday as
a mid-level shortwave and inverted surface trough reflection
traverse the region from southeast to northwest, with an 80%
chance of exceeding the daily record PWAT of 2.39 inches. As
such, heavy rainfall is possible mainly west of I-75 in GA and
the Suwanee Valley FL. In particular, scattered flash flooding
is possible south of I-10 to the coast, and if trends increase
in CAMS, a Flood Watch may eventually be needed. Thunderstorms
may lead to gusty winds near the coast w/ waterspouts offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

At the start of the short term period, the best deep layer
moisture will continue moving to the north and west as the
tropical wave approaches the Central Gulf. With deep layer
ridging beginning to build back across the Florida Peninsula, some
drier air will begin to return to the region, which will also
bring about an end to the cloudy mornings that have been in place
for a while. The expectation is that while storm coverage will
still be fairly robust over the marine area, that storm coverage
will be more diurnally driven and more common to a southerly flow
sea breeze distribution by Tuesday before an even drier airmass
and ridging builds over the area on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement that the airmass
will dry out as ridging aloft intensifies. While there are subtle
differences in ridge placement, a 595-597 dm ridge often
translates into reduced storm coverage and above average
temperatures across the region. This is reflected well in both the
10/06z and 10/12z GFS runs as well as the 10/00z and 10/12z ECMWF.
As a result, confidence in this portion of the forecast was
sufficient enough to trend PoPs lower and MaxTs higher starting
Wednesday and continuing into Saturday. Looking at the NBM
temperature distribution, the operational guidance was trending
below the median of the ensemble members most days. Given the
synoptic pattern, felt that a warmer solution was more likely so
favored a solution nearer to the 75th percentile of the NBM MaxT
guidance, which results in a stretch of mid to upper 90s
temperatures from Thursday into Saturday. Even though some mixing
will take place to reduce surface dewpoints in the afternoon, heat
indices will still approach or exceed advisory criteria from
Thursday into Saturday with the possibility of warning criteria
being met in portions of the area on Friday and Saturday. This
stretch of the forecast is certainly a good reminder that summer
is not close to being over!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Stubborn MVFR cigs should scatter out by 20Z today. TEMPO groups
remain for brief TSRA induced MVFR at TLH and VLD with a PROB30
at ABY and ECP. Low cigs will tend to overspread the terminals
again overnight generally from northeast to southwest w/at least
MVFR - Greatest potential for IFR is at ABY, DHN, and VLD with
LIFR possible at DHN in addition to fog, which may also briefly
affect VLD. A slow lift to MVFR Monday morning for all terminals
with TSRA reinforcing restrictions at TLH mainly after 12Z and
possibly at ECP later in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Widespread maritime convection is expected the next couple of
days with the passage of a tropical wave across the Northern Gulf.
Outside of thunderstorms, light easterly winds initially prevail
before shifting more out of the south heading into Monday.
Following the tropical wave`s departure around mid-week, a
building ridge of high pressure prompts a west to southwest wind
shift in addition to a reverting of typical summertime diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms mainly overnight and the morning
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Anomalously moist air mass will support above normal shower and
thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday, then diminishing to
a more typically scattered coverage of storms around mid-week.
The abundance of clouds and showers on Monday and Tuesday will
set the stage for pockets of poor afternoon dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

With PWATs forecast to rise into the 95th percentile for this time
of year, locally heavy rainfall with any storms can be expected
through Tuesday. The initial focus will be early Monday morning
and through the day as coastal areas in the Florida Big Bend and
Panhandle will have the greatest chance of seeing sufficient
rainfall to cause flash flooding. The threat will then shift
solely into the Florida Panhandle Monday Night and into Tuesday.
Thereafter, the threat will decrease.

A flood watch may be needed on future shifts, especially if it
appears heavy rainfall may overspread some of our vulnerable
coastal urban communities. Outside of these areas, however, the
flash flood guidance is still quite high, so several inches of
rain outside of an urban environment would be needed to cause
flash flooding.

The only coastal river with any vulnerability at the current time
for flooding is the Sopchoppy River, but with its headwaters near
the Leon County line, heavy rainfall would have to move quite a
distance inland to affect this particular basin. Even so, with it
currently around 16 ft, several inches of rainfall could produce
minor river flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  84  74  90 /  40  80  40  80
Panama City   76  84  77  89 /  50  80  60  80
Dothan        73  85  73  88 /  10  80  50  80
Albany        74  87  73  90 /  30  70  40  80
Valdosta      73  89  73  92 /  50  60  30  60
Cross City    73  91  74  93 /  70  60  30  60
Apalachicola  78  84  78  88 /  60  80  50  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Godsey