448
FXUS62 KTAE 201041
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
641 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The core of a 592dm H5 ridge is over northern Florida this morning
and will mosey into the western Atlantic later today. What does this
change in terms of our weather today? Not a thing. We remain dry
with a southerly breeze getting a little gusty at times this
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to once again climb into the
middle to upper 80s, with the upper 70s to near 80 along the
immediate coast. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 60s for much
of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Generally warm and dry conditions are expected through the short
and long term period with mid-level ridging over Florida. A
shortwave is forecast to push a cold front into the Appalachians
and MS River Valley Monday into Tuesday, but this front is
forecast to stall out well to the north of our area. Still, the
gradual increase in moisture across the region along with this
front to the north could produce a couple of showers and storms
over the northern portions of the area periodically this week.

Temperatures are forecast to be quite warm in the 80s early in
the week before warming to the mid 80s to low 90s mid to late
week. If the ridging ends up stronger than forecast, highs could
end up even a few degrees higher than currently forecast. Lows
are forecast fairly steady in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail. Light to
moderate southeasterly to southerly winds get a little gusty at
times this afternoon, especially for KECP and KTLH.

Fog is forecast to develop early Monday morning across the western
Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. There remains some
uncertainty as to how far east the lower visibility, but did add
some BR for KDHN and KECP Monday morning, but kept it VFR for the
time being.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A strong high pressure ridge stretching from Bermuda to the
coastal Carolinas will keep moderate to perhaps fresh southeast
breezes over the waters through Tuesday morning. The high pressure
ridge axis will push south closer to the waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday, as a weakening cold front dissipates over the Southeast
States. High pressure will strengthen off the Northeast U.S. coast
around Thursday, bringing a restrengthening of east or southeast
breezes over the northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly breezes continue the
next couple of days as low-level moisture increases bit-by-bit.
However, no wetting rain is anticipated the next several days as
high pressure remains in control of our forecast. While Fire Weather
concerns remain low the next few days, it`s worth mentioning that
it`s getting quite dry out there and the passage of the seabreeze
will create locally gusty winds as it passes through.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

No flooding is expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  62  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  64  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  61  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  63  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  65  77  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield