499
FXUS62 KTAE 051037
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
637 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The story today will be a substantial gradient in rain chances and
atmospheric moisture across our region.

Early this morning, Tropical Depression 3 was centered about 130
miles east of the Georgia coast. It is forecast to make landfall as
a low-end tropical storm along the South Carolina coast early
Sunday. TD 3 will enhance our low-mid level northeast flow for one
more day today. This will suppress and limit our usual summer
convection for a couple of reasons.

First, the northeast flow has driven drier air into the north and
northwest portion of our service area. Satellite-derived
Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows values ranging from about 1.3
inches near Eufaula, Alabama, to about 2 inches around Cross City
and over the offshore Gulf waters. Of course, 1.5 inches is a crude
threshold for deep, moist convection in an absence of larger scale
forcing. This moisture disparity will set up a strong PoP gradient
from northwest to southeast today. In fact, we are carrying a rain-
free forecast north of Enterprise, Dothan, Blakely, and Dawson. In
contrast, the richly moist air mass down near Cross City will
support an abundance of afternoon storms.

The northeast flow will also pin the seabreeze closer to the coast,
limiting the inland extent of this common forcing mechanism.

Though temperatures this afternoon will reach seasonably hot values
in the low to mid 90s, dewpoints back in the drier air will fall
into the 60s, holding the heat index below 100 for all but the
muggier Emerald Coast. When combined with one more day of moderate
northeast breezes, it may not seem as insufferably hot today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

On Sunday, we`re still within the grips of troughing aloft. The
1000-700 hPa mean flow will be out of the northeast 5-10 kts. This
would place the greatest PoP closer to the coast, as the inland
penetration of the seabreeze is stymied. In addition, drier air
aloft will be present in our northeast counties via subsidence on
the backside of Tropical Depression Three, which is forecast to
make landfall as a Tropical Storm in South Carolina on Sunday
morning. As a result, PWATs AOB 1.5 inches begin to manifest in
the Southwest GA counties, with AOA average PWATs elsewhere. Will
go below guidance on PoPs, generally 50-60% closer to the coast,
trending toward 20% in the northern AL/GA counties. There is the
potential for some higher DCAPE on Sunday, so an isolated pulse
severe thunderstorm or two cannot be rule out. The aforementioned
subsidence will aid in turbulent mixing of lower dew points to the
surface, with values falling through the upper 60s in portions of
Southeast AL and Southwest GA during Sunday afternoon & evening.

On Monday, we begin the transition to ridging aloft. In addition,
the 1000-700 hPa mean flow will generally be light and variable,
and PWATs will be closer to climatology. Will trend PoPs in this
direction as well, but slightly below climatology given ridging
aloft, maxing out around 50% closer to I-10 per CAMs/Ensembles.
This maxima is displaced further north and the value is lower
compared to guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Ridging becomes more firmly established on Tuesday and Wednesday
nearly on top of the region with 500 hPa heights rising to around
594 Decameters. The 1000-700 hPa mean flow will be out of the west
5-10 kts both days, with PWATs gradually rising to above average.
This would favor the highest PoPs south of I-10, generally in the
50-70% range, which is close to guidance on Tuesday and lower
than guidance on Wednesday. If the westerly flow becomes stronger
than modeled, or veers more northerly, the seabreeze would be
pinned closer to the coast resulting in lower PoPs. In addition,
this would lead to temperatures higher than currently forecast,
which is in the middle 90s away from the coast. "Mixed" out the
dew points each afternoon, resulting in values below guidance in
the lower 70s generally north of I-10. There is the potential for
advisory-level heat on Tue and Wed; our heat advisory criteria is
108F. The probability of Heat indices meeting advisory criteria
is around 50% (medium) on both days. As of now, our deterministic
forecast heat indicies remain below advisory thresholds. But if
there is stronger westerly flow/a more northerly component, or
less turbulent mixing (higher dew points), we may reach advisory
thresholds.

For Thursday and Friday, the ridging is modeled to break down,
resulting in lower mid-level heights. A similar PoP configuration
is expected given continued 1000-700 hPa mean westerly flow, but
ensembles generally show at least a 50% probability that PWATs
increase further into the 75th percentile of climatology. As a
result, PoPs increase a bit more, and trended guidance to show
the highest values generally around I-10.

Looking ahead, the pattern may be become favorable for a bonafide
high risk of rip currents late next week into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Low-mid level northeast flow today will bring enough dry air across
ABY and DHN to eliminate any mention of thunder in the TAFs.

Further south, TLH and VLD will be near or just north of adequate
moisture for convection. Thunder is most likely to remain just south
of the 10-mile terminal radii, but it could be close enough to
include low-confidence PROB30 mentions for thunder late in the
afternoon.

ECP will have less moisture to work with, but the general northeast
flow will pin the seabreeze for most of the afternoon between ECP
and the beaches. Proximity of this focusing feature for much of the
afternoon warrants the inclusion of VCTS during the late
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Tropical Depression Three off the Southeast US Coast is forecast to
strengthen into a Tropical Storm before making landfall in South
Carolina on Sunday. In its wake, subtropical high pressure will
gradually build into the coastal waters next week. This weekend,
light and variable winds will become onshore each afternoon and
evening with the seabreeze. From Sunday night through Wednesday
night, southwest winds around 10 knots, maximizing near the coast
during the afternoon and evenings. Briefly higher winds and seas
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. The highest potential for
waterspouts will be with any showers and embedded thunderstorms
during the morning hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A landfalling tropical storm along the South Carolina coast today
will contribute to somewhat strong northeasterly transport winds
today, leading to high dispersion this afternoon over most inland
areas. Meanwhile, the northeast winds will also support a drier air
mass than usual for this time of year. High dispersion will continue
on Sunday east of U.S. 19 in south Georgia, where transport winds
will continue on the stronger side. Otherwise, seasonably hot
weather will continue for the foreseeable future, with a scattering
of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Storms will most
heavily favor seabreeze-favored areas over Florida districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the
summer wet season and focused near and south of I-10 thru midweek,
where minor urban/poor drainage flooding is possible each day.
By late week, an anomalously moist air mass across the region may
introduce a low probability of isolated flash flooding. Riverine
flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  73  94  76 /  40  30  40  30
Panama City   94  76  92  78 /  30  40  40  20
Dothan        93  73  95  75 /  20  10  20  10
Albany        93  72  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      92  73  94  76 /  40  30  30  20
Cross City    91  71  91  75 /  70  60  50  30
Apalachicola  88  76  88  78 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...LF