805
FXUS62 KTAE 150634
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
234 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast. A
few isolated showers early this morning will depart quickly after
sunrise. Otherwise, west and southwesterly winds prevail through
the period as upper level ridging develops over the southeast US.
This will continue the increasing trend in temperatures with highs
today reaching the low 90s and overnight lows mainly in the 65 to
70 range. Brief patchy fog is possible this morning and Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

A prominent upper level ridge will build over the region for the
next several days. This will keep rain chances at a minimum
through the extended period. However, due to shortwave patterns
riding along the ridge this weekend, there is a slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm to develop north of I-10 this weekend.
PoPs are low at 20% and less. Following that, the 500mb ridge is
expected to restrengthen to around 590dm allowing temperatures to
soar. Temperatures this weekend heading into next week are
expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points will be warm as
well, with values in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Mid-
level westerly/southwesterly flow will allow for mixing to occur,
prohibiting the dew points from exceeding the low 70s in our
inland regions. This will also prevent heat indices from reaching
advisory levels, with values between 95-100 degrees for the
afternoons. Regardless, it will be hot and muggy afternoons, after
possible patchy fog in the mornings this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Patchy fog is possible early this morning with brief, isolated
showers near TLH, ABY, and VLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the day with light to moderate southwesterly
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

High pressure will build over the marine zone leading to somewhat
favorable boating conditions with seas around 2-3 feet and
southwesterly winds around 10 kts. The afternoon sea breeze will
kick up each afternoon, boosting winds to nearly 15 kts. Dry
weather is expected to continue for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

There are no big changes to the previous forecast. Mainly dry
weather is expected over the next several days with heat and
humidity building through Friday. The main fire weather concerns
will be high dispersions mainly north of I-10 through Friday
afternoon. Some enhancement to the southwest winds is expected for
both afternoons mainly to the south of I-10 associated with
afternoon seabreezes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

One river, the Choctawhatchee River, will crest in Action Stage
over the next few days. No significant rainfall is expected for
the extended period, resulting in no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        93  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      94  68  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  82  71  83  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery