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FXUS66 KSTO 222036
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
136 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

.Discussion...

.Synopsis...
Dry and periodically breezy weather expected from today into
early next week with temperatures fluctuating between near and
slightly above normal as a more progressive pattern sets up aloft.
Elevated fire weather conditions anticipated during breezier
periods as low humidity and marginal recovery persists.

&&

.Key Messages...

* Today - Saturday:
 -Quick moving, dry shortwaves bring periods of breezy to briefly
  gusty onshore winds.
 -Probability of South-Southwest Wind Gusts > 30 mph:
 --40-70%, highest across Delta and vicinity area
 --Strongest winds expected during afternoon/evening hours today.
 -Marginal humidity recovery expected in onshore flow, but
  elevated fire weather conditions persist, especially during
  periods of strongest winds.
 -Temperatures to fluctuate around near to slightly above normal,
  with areas of Minor HeatRisk.

* Sunday - Thursday:
 -Stronger weather system to progress toward interior NorCal Sun-
  Mon, then remain largely stationary over the West Coast into
  next week.
 -Primarily dry weather anticipated, although a slight 5-10%
  chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms possible each day.
  Highest probabilities over the N. Sacramento Valley and Sierra.
 -Breezier onshore winds expected, especially Sunday as the system
  arrives. Probability of South-Southwest Wind Gusts > 30 mph:
 --60-90% across the Valley and Delta on Sunday
 -Marginal humidity recovery and elevated fire weather conditions
  likely to persist, especially during stronger winds on Sunday.

.Changes from previous forecast...
 -Low precipitation chances possible into next week, although
  forecast uncertainty remains high at this time.
 -Ensemble guidance indicates a more robust warming trend by late
  next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours. Wind gusts
15-20 kts through 06z Friday across the Delta (westerly gusts),
southern Sacramento Valley (southwesterly gusts) and the northern
San Joaquin Valley (northwesterly gusts). Breezy westerly wind
gusts vicinity Delta after 06z Friday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$