809
FXUS66 KSTO 182112
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
112 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms,and
   substantial mountain and foothills snow expected through
   Thursday, with a brief break expected Friday and Saturday.

 - Major travel impacts in the mountains and foothills with light
   snowfall accumulations possible down to 300 feet in Shasta and
   Tehama Counties on Thursday morning.

 - Potential for active weather to continue into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Friday...
A strong and cold trough brings widespread moderate to heavy
rain, periods of heavy snow for the mountains and foothills, gusty
south winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances to interior NorCal
through late Thursday. Snow levels remain around 1500-2500 feet
with potential for snow levels to reach down to 300 feet in the
northern Sacramento Valley. Some fluctuations also possible down
to 1000 feet along the Sierra. Heaviest snowfall, with snowfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour, is expected overnight and early
Thursday. As a result, the Winter Storm Warning will continue
through 10 pm Thursday evening, and now includes low elevation
portions of Shasta and Tehama Counties.

Likewise, as periods of gusty south to west winds continue as the
system remains over the region this week, the Wind Advisory will
continue through 10 pm Thursday, with strongest winds gusting 35
to 45 mph, anticipated late tonight through Thursday. More periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected for most Valley
locations, and instances of urban and roadway flooding will likely
continue with some potential for rises on small streams and
creeks. Additionally, there is a slight chance remaining this
evening for isolated thunderstorms (around 10%) in the Valley and
foothills.

Ensemble guidance is generally in agreement that by late in the
week, the trough will begin ejecting eastward toward the Rockies.
This looks to introduce a period of primarily dry weather to the
region on Friday, although some lingering mountain snow showers
will remain possible.

...Late Weekend into Next Week...

While the aforementioned system currently impacting the region is
expected to trail off as it pushes eastward, ensemble guidance
continues to indicate a separate trough digging southward from the
Gulf of Alaska by the weekend. Exact timing and resultant details
remain uncertain, but there is increasing potential at this time
for additional periods of active weather to continue through the
weekend and into early next week. While details surrounding timing
and exact snow amounts are still uncertain, confidence is
increasing that this next storm will be warmer than the currently
ongoing system, with snow levels currently expected to remain
above 4000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with periods of MVFR in -SHRA expected at TAF
sites through 06z Thursday with breezy south winds 10 to 15 kts.
Widespread precipitation and MVFR/IFR conditions then return
overnight through Thursday, with some potential for snowfall as
far south as RBL as snow levels fall below 1000 feet Thursday
morning. Increasing south winds with gusts 25 to 35 kts also
expected after 06z.

For the mountains, MVFR/IFR conditions expected in scattered snow
showers through 06z Thursday, although some LIFR possible at
times in heavier showers from Interstate 80 southward. Snow levels
remain around 1500-2500 feet next 24 hours, dipping as low as
1000 feet along the Sierra and below 1000 feet for Shasta County
mountains/Coastal Range 10z-15z Thursday. South to west winds
gusting 45 to 55 kts at times, strongest after 06z Thursday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta
County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento
Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern
Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$