Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
190 FXUS66 KSTO 212205 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 205 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong atmospheric river brings periods of moderate to heavy rain and mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty southerly winds to interior NorCal through the end of the week, over the weekend and into early next week. *Winter Storm Warning: From 4 PM Friday through 4 PM Tuesday for elevations above 6000 feet along the Sierra/ Southern Cascades including Interstate 80 and Highway 50. *Flood Watch: Through 4 AM Saturday for Valley/foothills locations generally north Interstate 80 and below 3000 feet. *Wind Advisory: From 7 PM this evening until 10 AM Friday for the Northern/Central Sacramento Valley and Northeast foothills. .DISCUSSION... Radar this afternoon remains fairly active, continuing rain north of Interstate 80 with lingering snow showers across the mountains. With snow levels increasing this morning and the extent of snow across the mountain decreasing, this morning`s Winter Storm Warning has been allowed to expire with lingering mountain travel impacts as slick roads and chain controls persist. For today, precipitation will slowly begin to lift northward and weaken through this evening, although the far western sides of the Valley, Northern Sacramento Valley, and northern portions of the Sierra won`t see a real break precipitation. Then late tonight, precipitation makes a return, spreading back further south and east and sliding eastward across northern CA on Friday. Saturday will see lingering mountain impacts as showers continue over the Sierra. Active weather reinvigorates on Sunday evening into early next week as our low pressure system in the Pacific NW continues troughing over Northern CA bringing continued rain and mountain snow impacts through Tuesday morning. As a result, an assortment of forecast products have been issued from this evening through early next week. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening until 10 AM Friday for gusts of 40 to 50 MPH expected strongest early to mid- morning Friday. NBM probabilities of gusts stronger than 40 MPH are 70-90% across the northeastern foothills and northern portions of the Central Sacramento Valley. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph linger through Friday afternoon before tapering off in the evening and overnight hours. Our Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for waves of heavy snow from Friday afternoon until Tuesday afternoon showing accumulations of 1 to 3 feet, up to 4 feet along the higher peaks. The first wave of moderate to heavy snow will be Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon with a secondary wave of heavier snowfall Sunday night into Tuesday afternoon. Lingering snow showers will exist in between these waves so some areas may not see a break in snowfall but rather just changes in intensity. Snow levels will initially be around 6000 to 7000 feet Friday late afternoon and evening, lowering to 4500-5500 feet over the weekend. Monday will see minor rises in snow levels with 5000-6500 feet expected. Lastly, winds will also gusts up to 50 MPH. Also, with this system will see periods of moderate to heavy rain across the Valley through early next week. Similar to snow, there will be waves of heavier precipitation over the next several days with the highest amounts over the mountains, then foothills, and lastly the Valley floor. The mountains will see anywhere from 5 to 1 foot of precipitation from today through Tuesday, heaviest near the Feather River Valley. The foothills will see 4 to 8 inches, increasing as you move northward and approach the Feather R. Valley. Lastly, the Valley will see 1.50 to 4 inches, heaviest over the Northern Sacramento Valley. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the northern half of the Central Valley for excessive runoff resulting in sharp rises in rivers, creeks, and streams, and ponding of water or flooding on roadways and other low-lying locations. For the mountains and foothills north of Hwy. 50, chances for totals greater than 4 inches is 65-100% between today and Sunday afternoon. For the Valley, there is A 50-80% chance of totals greater than 3" from today to Sunday afternoon. For Friday late morning through Saturday, there is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorm development, primarily from the Northern Sac. Valley to the eastern portions of the Valley north of Interstate 80. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)... By the start of the work week, rain and mountain showers will continue to impact interior Northern California through Tuesday as the aforementioned weather system pushes inland. Snow levels are forecast to be around 5000-6500 feet Monday through Tuesday, with additional forecast snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches and up to 2 feet along the highest peaks of the Sierra. Probabilities of exceeding 12 inches are between 50% and 75%. Across the Valley, there is a 30 to 50% chance of rainfall accumulations of 1.00 inch or more through Wednesday morning. Lower elevation precipitation is expected to persist as well, with totals of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible across the Valley and foothills and 1 to 2.5 inches possible across the mountains through Tuesday. Heading into the midweek (Wed-Thu) timeframe, there is some uncertainty whether this period of active weather may slowly taper off or persist. The current forecast solution shows an additional few inches of mountain snow, tapering off by Wednesday night. The National Blend of Models projects an a 50 to 70% chance of 2.00 inches of snow or more over the Sierra, Wednesday AM into Thursday with snow levels around 4000 to 5500 feet, trending lower compared to yesterday`s forecast. The bulk of the rain ends on Tuesday, so Wednesday and Thursday rain will be mainly constrained to the Sierra foothills and eastern Central Valley with amounts of a trace to 0.10" forecasted. Be sure to stay up to with the latest forecast at weather.gov/sto if you have outdoor holiday plans and check current road conditions at quickmap.dot.ca.gov before traveling! && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally heavy precipitation continues to move across the region resulting in periods of VFR to IFR conditions across the Sacramento Valley and foothills with isolated areas of IFR/LIFR in the mountains through 18Z Fri. South winds continue to trend down this afternoon with lingering gusts of 20 to 30 kts over the northeastern foothills. South winds gusts increase after Fri 03z and persists until Fri 18z with gusts of 25 to 35 kts up to 45 kts expected strongest over the northeastern foothills. Over the Sierra, southerly winds gusting 30 to 45 kts through 18z Fri. Valley winds will decrease after Fri 18z, becoming 15-20 kts by the late evening. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late Friday night for Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley- Northern Sacramento Valley. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$