Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
478 FXUS66 KSTO 211049 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 249 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy north to east winds this morning. Besides light showers in the Coast Range, northern Sacramento Valley and southern Cascades Sunday and Monday, dry weather and above-normal temperatures prevail into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Current observations show some lingering wind gusts of around 15 to 20 mph across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, with local gusts up to 25-35 over the foothills/mountains. Breezy winds are forecast to decrease through the day. Patchy fog may develop across portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys this morning (10-30% probability). Generally dry and warming weather will continue through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the pattern. Daytime temperatures will reach into the 60s to low 70s in the Valley, Delta and lower foothills, with 40s to low 60s in the upper foothills and mountains. Light precipitation is forecast across the Coast Range, northern Sacramento Valley and southern Cascades late Saturday night into Sunday, and again Monday afternoon and evening as weak systems move over the Pacific NW. There is a 40-65% probability of precipitation amounts greater than 0.25" over the northern mountains with the first wave. Overall, WPC guidance indicates precipitation amounts ranging from 0.10-0.50" over the Coast Range and Southern Cascades, with generally 0.10" or less in the northern Sacramento Valley. Overall, little to no impacts are expected as precipitation will be light and snow levels will remain high. The second wave appears to be drier, with precipitation amounts generally less than 0.10". Locally breezy southerly winds up to 15-30 mph are expected as well with the second wave, mainly across portions of the northern/central Sacramento Valley and northeastern foothills and mountains; strongest over the foothills/mountains. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance support dry and mild conditions next week under upper level ridging. Highs will range from 5-15 degrees above climatology across the region, especially mid to late week (also supported by the Extreme Forecast Index). Daytime high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s are expected through the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. The NBM indicates a 50 to 85 percent probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F throughout the lower elevations over the extended forecast period. There is also a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75 degrees F mid to late next week across portions of the northern/central Sacramento Valley (up to 40-70% on Friday). Occasional periods of breezy north to east/downslope winds are expected at times. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected next 24 hours across interior NorCal, except for a brief period of MVFR/isolated IFR conditions across portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys due to BR/FG and/or low ceilings until 18z Friday. North to east wind gusts up to 15 to 25 kts through around 18z Friday over the mountains and foothills before becoming light. Elsewhere, light winds under 12 kts in the Valley. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$