412
FXUS66 KSTO 222124
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
124 PM PST Sat Feb 22 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring light showers and breezy southerly winds
to the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent
foothills and mountains tonight into Sunday and then an even
weaker system on Monday. Dry weather and well above normal
temperatures then continue next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies with light winds and temperatures trending a
little warmer than yesterday are present across the area.
Satellite imagery shows some high clouds spreading in ahead of the
first of two weak systems that will bring precipitation to the
northern third of the state starting tonight. This system will
continue through Sunday evening, peaking Sunday morning. Latest
forecast rainfall totals have trended a little higher, bringing
between 0.50 to 1.15 inches to Shasta County foothills and
mountains. Elsewhere, between 0.05 and 0.4 inches are forecast
for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills/mountains
north of I-80. Snow levels will be high, generally around 8000
feet, so snow will not impact travel. After a short break in
precipitation Sunday night into early Monday, the second wave will
bring lighter precipitation amounts, generally a few hundredths
of an inch to a third of an inch, mainly over Shasta County. Some
scattered showers may extend further southward over the central
Sacramento Valley and Sierra mountains/foothills, mainly north of
I-80. Overall, impacts will be little to none, but a few isolated
areas further north in Shasta County may see minor impacts such as
slippery roads for the evening commute. Breezy southerly winds
are also expected for Monday, with gusts 15 to 30 mph in the
northern/central Sacramento Valley, locally up to 35 mph in the
adjacent foothills, with gusts up to 40 mph over the Sierra.

Above-normal temperatures will persist through this week and into
the next, as upper-level ridging builds back over the Pacific
Northwest ushering in a return to dry weather.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continue to support warm
and dry conditions next week under upper level ridging. Daytime
high temperatures will be trending above normal for late February
/early March climatology. The NBM shows a 55 to 85 percent
probability of high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees F throughout
the lower elevations over the extended forecast period. As the
ridging persists, a few locations may even see a chance at 80
degrees or higher later next week. Currently there is a 20 to 40%
chance of exceeding 80 degrees across northern/central Sacramento
Valley, with up to 40% around the Redding area. Light winds are
generally expected with the exception of occasional periods of
breezy north to east/downslope winds at times.

Towards the beginning of March, a few ensembles show a low
pressure system moving inland over Southern California which may
bring a few isolated sprinkles to the Sierra, south of I-80.


&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of brief MVFR conditions in showers across portions of the
northern Sacramento Valley, Coast Range and southern Cascades
after 00Z-06Z Sunday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected with
surface winds generally under 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$