Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
798 FXUS66 KSTO 081042 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 242 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and calmer weather are expected through the end of the week. A more unsettled weather pattern then arrives from early next week, bringing increasing precipitation chances and some gusty winds. .DISCUSSION... Ridging continues over California through Saturday afternoon, then a weak shortwave trough progresses into the area. This first system has been trending weaker each day, and is expected to bring few, if any, impacts to the area beyond keeping temperatures seasonable. Valley temperatures will generally be in the high 60s through Sunday, with highs in the 40s to 60s at higher elevations. Overnight on Sunday, a second, stronger trough moves into the area, though this most recent run has shown some disagreement on impacts moving into the early week. Overall, impacts from this system appear to remain minimal. Most of the precipitation associated with this system looks to remain in the northern portion of the Valley, and in the mountains and foothills otherwise. Rain totals in the NBM look to be less than a quarter of an inch for the majority of the Valley, with slightly higher totals in the northern parts of the Valley (generally around half an inch), and at higher elevations (up to an inch in the northern foothills and mountains). As for snow, the NBM is predicting a 35-60% probability of snow totals of 3 inches or more above 6000 ft. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly below normal however, with highs in the Valley generally in the high 50s to low 60s. Additionally, gusty south to southwest winds are expected Monday, particularly in the Delta and the mountains. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Lingering shower threat over northern portions of interior NorCal Tuesday, otherwise drier weather expected as CWA comes under upper ridging. Digging upstream baroclinic zone will be slow to progress as it encounters downstream upper ridging. POPs increase Wednesday afternoon over the Coastal Range and W Shasta mountains, then precip chances gradually increase over much of CWA Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall QPF looks less than the storm early in the week. Model differences increase through midweek with wave progression leading to forecast uncertainty with precip threat towards the end of the week. NBM leans towards wetter weather Friday. Below normal high temperatures expected through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with sfc wind mainly below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$