574
FXUS66 KSTO 121015
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.



.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Temperatures will trend less hot today and will be noticeably
   cooler by Wednesday, though still be above normal.

 - Temperatures trend warmer late week into the weekend, with
   areas of Moderate HeatRisk returning

 - Gusty north to east winds are expected for the weekend, coupled
   with low humidity, bringing elevated fire weather concerns for
   lower elevations

&&

.DISCUSSION MORNING UPDATE...

...Today...

The Heat Advisory has been cancelled, with mainly Minor HeatRisk
now expected. Forecasts highs for Tuesday are trending cooler but
are still expected to be above normal. After Tuesday late
afternoon and evening, a trough moving through the PacNW will help
push the ridging eastward and reduce heat impacts over the area.

...Wednesday through Friday...

Ensembles continue to depict the ridge breaking down towards the
middle of the week, which will result a decent amount of cooling
on Wednesday. As lower pressure moves through the area on
Wednesday. Ensembles show this system continues to trend
northward, with just some light showers now expected for the
northern Coastal Range and the southern Cascades, mainly for
northeastern Shasta County. Impacts should be quiet limited with
vast majority of places staying dry.

Concerns for gusty northerly winds are increasing for the weekend
as ensembles are starting to lean more towards an inside-slider
type shortwave shifting into the Great Basin. Dry conditions
develop particularly over the Sacramento Valley, especially north
of Interstate 80, with the NBM showing minimum Relative Humidity
getting into the teens and upper single digits. This coupled with
weekend wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph, strongest west of I-5,
brings the potential for elevated fire weather concerns for the
Valley and portions of the Delta.

Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest
forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds generally 12 kts or less through Tuesday morning,
except near the Delta, where winds to 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts
are possible. Breezy south-southwest winds develop after 18z
Tuesday, with gusts up to 15-25 kts in the Valley and Delta, and
up to 25-35 kts over the mountains.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$