Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
931
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPSPL
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE CO
SPTC2 7.0 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PLUM CREEK AT SEDALIA CO 1W
LOVC2 8.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAR CR AT MORRISON CO
MRRC2 9.0 10.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAR CR AT SHERIDAN CO
SHRC2 8.0 10.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT DENVER CO
DNVC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CLEAR CR AT GOLDEN CO 1WSW
GLDC2 8.5 9.5 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CLEAR CR AT DERBY CO 2WSW
DRBC2 10.5 11.5 12.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT HENDERSON CO
HNDC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT FORT LUPTON CO 2NNW
LUPC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:N FK BIG THOMPSON R AT DRAKE CO
DKKC2 5.5 6.0 7.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO 9NW
FTDC2 7.5 9.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO
POUC2 10.5 11.5 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE R AT GREELEY CO
GRPC2 8.0 9.5 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT KERSEY CO
KERC2 10.0 11.5 13.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT WELDONA CO
WNAC2 10.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT FORT MORGAN CO 1N
FOMC2 17.5 19.5 21.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT BALZAC CO
BZNC2 10.0 11.0 12.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT ATWOOD CO 1S
ATWC2 11.5 13.0 14.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT JULESBURG CO CH 2
JULC2 10.0 11.0 12.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT ROSCOE NE 1SE
RSON1 9.0 11.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE NO.2
NPSN1 13.0 14.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH PLATTE R
SPTC2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/
:PLUM CREEK
LOVC2 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4/
:BEAR CR
MRRC2 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.1/
SHRC2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
DNVC2 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/
:CLEAR CR
GLDC2 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/
DRBC2 3.4/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
HNDC2 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.2/
LUPC2 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.3/ 5.5/
:N FK BIG THOMPSON R
DKKC2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:CACHE LA POUDRE R
FTDC2 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 2.9/
POUC2 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.5/
GRPC2 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 3.1/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
KERC2 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 4.9/
WNAC2 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 4.3/ 4.6/
FOMC2 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.7/ 10.6/ 11.1/ 11.5/
BZNC2 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.7/
ATWC2 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.5/
JULC2 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.7/ 7.0/
RSON1 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.7/
NPSN1 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 7.7/ 8.4/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH PLATTE R
SPTC2 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
:PLUM CREEK
LOVC2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:BEAR CR
MRRC2 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/
SHRC2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
DNVC2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:CLEAR CR
GLDC2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/
DRBC2 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
HNDC2 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/
LUPC2 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/
:N FK BIG THOMPSON R
DKKC2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:CACHE LA POUDRE R
FTDC2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
POUC2 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/
GRPC2 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/
:SOUTH PLATTE R
KERC2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/
WNAC2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/
FOMC2 10.0/ 9.8/ 9.7/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.3/ 9.3/
BZNC2 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.6/
ATWC2 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/
JULC2 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.1/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
RSON1 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/
NPSN1 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.7/
.END
$$