Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
411 FXUS01 KWBC 110735 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 13 2025 ...Renewed warmth in the Central and Eastern U.S.... ...Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Severe Weather potential over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern High Plains through the rest of the week... A potent upper-level trough will move across the Southwest, Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days. This area of low pressure will generate windy conditions for the Southwest and Southern High Plains. The combination of winds and entrenched dry air will support a Critical Fire Weather risk through the rest of the week. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely over Southern California today, followed by light to moderate snow development over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona tonight thanks to this shortwave. A low pressure system is then expected to develop over the Southern Plains on Wednesday and generate scattered showers and thunderstorm activity over parts of the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley, where The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and strong gusts late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, a developing northern stream ridge will likely develop over the Central U.S. leading to renewed mild temperatures through midweek. Highs in the upper 50s to low 70s will represent 20-40 degree anomalies for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures remain above average for most of the East through the end of the week beneath a zonal flow pattern aloft. A deeper, slower upper trough will amplify as it enters the West Coast on Wednesday. This trough will bring a cool and moist Pacific airmass into the West. Heavy snow rates, strong winds gusting to 40-70 mph and snow levels below many major passes will create dangerous to potentially impossible travel conditions across the Sierra Nevada and northern California terrain on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Heavy snow accumulating 1-3 feet or more along with the high winds could cause scattered power outages. Periods of heavy rain with rates of 0.5"/hr are likely in parts of southern California Wednesday -- Wednesday night. This could cause flash flooding, including shallow debris flows across sensitive burn scars or isolated rockslides, as well as hazardous travel due to ponding of water and slick roads. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$