358
FXUS01 KWBC 310700
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 31 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 02 2025

...There is a moderate risk (at least 40% chance) of excessive
rainfall for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic today...

...Late July heatwave begins to wind down in the Southeast...

...Cooler temperatures in store for Central and Eastern U.S....

...Critical Fire Weather for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great
Basin and Four Corners region...

A slow moving cold front supported by favorable upper jet
dynamics, sufficient instability and anomalous moisture is
expected to produce heavy to excessive rainfall as well as
potentially severe thunderstorms across the DC-PHI-NYC urban
corridor today. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall is in effect
from the DelMarVa region up to northern New Jersey. Training
storms along the slow moving front could lead to numerous
instances of flash flooding, especially over urbanized areas. 1-2"
of rainfall are likely within this area with isolated 3"+ totals
possible within the moderate risk area. The Storm Prediction
Center issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
for almost the same area that is highlighted by the moderate risk
of excessive rainfall. Damaging wind gusts are possible for these
areas. Meanwhile, another slight risk of severe thunderstorms is
in effect for the Central High Plains where damaging wind and hail
producing storms will be the main threats this evening. The threat
for flash flooding shifts southward into the Carolinas on Friday
where a slight risk, (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall
is in effect.

The arrival of a cold front will provide much needed relief to
parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. over the next several days.
Temperatures continue to drop below average on the backside of
this cold front pushing south through the lower 48 east of the
Rockies. Highs in the 70s and 80s will represent temperatures that
are 15-20 degrees below average for much of those areas. A dry
continental airmass will also settle in over the Midwest and
points east supported by a southward moving area of surface high
pressure through this weekend.

By contrast, the prolonged and expansive heatwave that has gripped
the Southeast this week will quickly taper off for the region
(excluding Florida) before the aforementioned cold front sweeps
through and cools things down. In the West, critical fire weather
areas were issued by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of the
Pacific Northwest, where dry thunderstorms could generate fires
today. Another critical risk area is in effect for the southern
Great Basin and Intermountain West/Four Corners regions where dry
and gusty conditions can support fires through Friday.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$