042
FXUS01 KWBC 162029
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 17 2026 - 00Z Sun Jul 19 2026

...Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill
Country today, with focus shifting toward the Big Bend on Friday...

...Anomalous heat and humidity persisting across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest while spreading into the northern
Mid-Atlantic...

...Air quality alert from the upper Midwest through the Great
Lakes into the Northeast...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms persist across the interior
western U.S with greatest flash flooding threat near the southern
borders of Arizona and New Mexico...

...Severe thunderstorms for portions of western Montana today;
strong thunderstorms possible for northern New England today...


As the anomalous upper high prolong a heatwave across the northern
states, a slow-moving weather regime continues across the southern
tier states where a stationary front remains from the Southern
Plains to the Southeast.  An upper-level low has migrated westward
into the southern High Plains to support a renewed round of heavy
thunderstorms across the Texas Hill Country. A continuous stream
of Gulf moisture will interact with the upper low bringing
additional rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ inches today
as these heavy thunderstorm clusters generally track northward
from the Texas Hill Country through central Texas. There is
ongoing flooding occurring across the region and any additional
rainfall will likely exacerbate the situation. The focus of the
heavy rainfall is expected to shift toward the Big Bend area, and
possibly be confined to western Texas by Saturday morning.

Hot and humid conditions expected to persist across the Great Lake
and Northern Plains for several days. Daily highs will climb into
the 90s to lower 100s. For New England, cooler air will punch into
the region on the backside of the cold front. This cooler air will
be reinforced as a secondary cold front approaches the region
Friday. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will also will streaming
into the northeastern quarter of the country. Meanwhile, another
day of triple-digit high temperatures and elevated humidity is
expected for the northern Mid-Atlantic before readings drop
slightly into the 90s on Friday.  Some strong thunderstorms are
possible later today across northern New England prior to the
arrival of the second cold front.

In the western U.S., severe thunderstorms are possible later today
across western Montana on the backside of a low pressure wave near
the western end of the front.  Meanwhile, monsoonal thunderstorms
are forecast to track from north to south across the Four Corners
region today under the influence of the upper low over the
southern High Plains.  The greatest flash flooding threat is
expected to be near the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico
for the next couple of days.  More monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the Intermountain West into the
eastern portion of the Great Basin.

Scattered thunderstorms will be lifting farther north into the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later today as the stationary
front gradually dissipates.  The frontal wave over the northern
High Plains will reach the central Great Lakes by Saturday
morning.  Scattered strong thunderstorms can be expected mainly
across the upper Great Lakes on Friday, shifting to the lower
Great Lakes by Saturday morning as the frontal wave moves eastward.

Kong/Campbell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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