606
FXUS01 KWBC 040757
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025

...Record high temperatures likely across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Saturday...

...A series of cold fronts moving across the West will bring much
cooler temperatures, locally heavy rain, and mountain snow...

...Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding possible along the east
coast of Florida and the central Gulf Coast...

A stronger than typical ridge aloft (for this time of year) will
allow for another day of above normal temperatures across most
areas east of the Rockies on Saturday. Temperatures will be most
anomalous across the Upper Midwest today, where temperatures could
even reach the low 90s in places like Minneapolis, where average
highs are in the 60s. Both high temperatures and warm minimum
temperatures could set numerous records, and HeatRisk shows Major
conditions for much of Minnesota, indicating the heat could affect
anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and
industries. Highs in the 80s are likely across the Great Lakes to
Northeast through the weekend, but a cold front will gradually
sneak across the Midwest and cool temperatures there slightly by
Sunday but especially by Monday.

Farther west, an upper low is forecast to move across the
Intermountain West today, with upper troughing getting renewed
there into early next week. These disturbances aloft will push
cold fronts through the West and allow for cooler than average
temperatures, particularly in the Great Basin today and into the
northern Rockies and vicinity Sunday. Highs should feel
particularly cool, around 10-20 degrees below average, with many
lower elevation areas only reaching the 50s. Lows should generally
be closer to normal, but Freeze Watches are in effect for portions
of Oregon and in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado
where temperatures could fall to 32 degrees or below.

Additionally, precipitation is likely for the interior West in
this pattern, with lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow.
Locally heavy rain could lead to isolated flooding across parts of
the Great Basin today, and a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
is in place. Moderate to heavy precipitation will stretch across
the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains today into
tonight. The Storm Prediction Center shows a Marginal Risk of
severe weather for potential high wind and hail threats across the
central Rockies and the central and northern Plains with this
activity. In higher elevations, the cool temperatures will allow
for mountain snow, with 6 to 12 inches generally forecast for
areas of Montana and Wyoming through Sunday night, prompting
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. By Sunday,
the cold front continuing eastward will focus some heavy rain and
possibly severe thunderstorms in the central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley. Gusty southerly winds and warm temperatures
ahead of the cold front could also lead to elevated fire weather
concerns in the central/northern Plains today and into the Midwest
on Sunday.

A weak surface low and frontal boundary with weak energy aloft
will nevertheless provide support for rain and thunderstorms
across Florida and across the central Gulf Coast to the south of
an expansive surface high. Easterly flow will lead to some
rainfall focus over the east coast of Florida, and heavy rain
could also sneak onshore to the central Gulf Coast and allow for
isolated flooding concerns due to high rain rates. Marginal Risks
of excessive rainfall are in place over the weekend in both areas.
Gusty winds may lead to concerns for mariners and beachgoers, with
rip currents and high surf possible.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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