216
FXUS01 KWBC 051830
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 00Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...Heavy showers and severe thunderstorms are expected to impact
portions of the central and southern Plains through tonight which
will include a threat for flash flooding...

...A broad threat of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms will
exist across the central and southern High Plains Friday into
Saturday, including areas well off to the east into the Mid-South
and Tennessee Valley...

...Tropical moisture associated with a low pressure system over
the southern Mid-Atlantic region will bring a threat of heavy
rainfall to the Carolinas through this evening...

An upper-level trough continues to weaken and shear out across the
southern Plains region, but will continue to interact with a
frontal zone draped across the region. This will set the stage for
additional heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms to
impact portions of the central and southern Plains going through
tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a couple of
Enhanced Risk areas (level 3/5) across portions of far southeast
CO, southwest KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. Additionally, an
Enhanced Risk area is depicted across southeast NM and into
adjacent areas of southwest to west-central TX. Concerns will
exist across all of these areas for thunderstorms to be capable of
producing very large hail, strong damaging winds and tornadoes
going through this evening and into the overnight hours. Aside
from the severe weather threat, isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding will be possible from the heavy rainfall, and the
Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall across portions of southern KS and much of
central and northern OK going into Friday morning. Isolated areas
of flash flooding will be possible elsewhere this evening and
tonight across western TX and into some portions of the Southwest
where moisture and instability will be in place.

This same front is forecast to extend well off to the east across
the OH Valley and gradually the Northeast U.S. going through the
end of the week and into the first part of the weekend which will
set the stage for an active pattern for heavy showers and
thunderstorms. This will be facilitated further by multiple waves
of low pressure which will be traversing the front, and each wave
of low pressure should tend to be an active focus for areas of
potentially severe weather and flash flooding. The Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center have highlighted
Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
respectively on Friday into Saturday stretching from the southern
Plains east down across the Mid-South and adjacent areas of the
Tennessee Valley. This will include locally strong damaging winds,
large hail and potentially a couple of tornadoes. However, a few
inches of rainfall may also locally accompany some of the severe
weather hazards which will introduce a threat for scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure impacting portions of the
Carolinas will gradually shift eastward toward the coast by early
Friday and then begin to edge offshore by late Friday. However,
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be accompanying this
which may result in a few inches of rainfall tonight into early
Friday. This may result in at least some isolated areas of flash
flooding.

Behind the aforementioned frontal zone draping from the southern
Plains to the OH Valley and Northeast, an elongated area of high
pressure will allow for dry weather, with temperatures generally
below normal. Some of the cooler temperature anomalies will be
focused over the central Plains where temperatures on Friday will
be as much as 10 to 15 degree below normal. Modestly below normal
temperatures will be noted farther east through Saturday across
the Midwest. Much above average temperatures are forecast to
develop across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin by
this weekend, with high temperatures that will locally be well
into the 90s and as much as 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Some of
the interior deserts of the Southwest will also see high
temperatures as high as 105 to 115 degrees.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$