950
FXUS01 KWBC 230717
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Aug 25 2025

...Excessive rainfall concerns for the Southeast and Four Corners
this weekend...

...Extreme heat over the Southwest through Sunday; expands in
Northwest through early next week...


A stalled surface front draped across the central Gulf and
Southeast Coasts will continue to be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms today. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur along the South Carolina, Georgia and north Florida
coasts, where plentiful moisture will interact with an area of
surface low pressure and the surface front to enhance rain rates.
A high-end slight risk (at least 25% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding is in effect for the Georgia Coast where
anywhere between an additional 1-2 inches, with isolated higher
amounts, are possible. Soils in this region are particularly
sensitive from ongoing rainfall (1-3" areal average since Friday
afternoon) along the stationary front.

Elsewhere, embedded shortwave energy within an upper-ridge will
produce monsoon activity in the Four Corners region this weekend.
A surface front draped up against the Central/Southern Rockies may
produce heavy rainfall today. A slight risk (at least 15% chance)
of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of south-central
Colorado and north-central New Mexico. The development of another
surface front over portions of the Central/Southern High Plains
will likely focus and expand monsoon moisture over parts of
western Kansas on Sunday, where another slight risk is in effect.
An additional slight risk is in effect for parts of southern Utah
and northern Arizona on Sunday, where scattered to isolated
instances of heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding over
vulnerable land types--especially slot canyons.

This same upper ridge will fuel a heat wave, which is expected
across much of the Western U.S. through this weekend, with the
most intense and long-lasting heat across the Desert Southwest
into the San Joaquin Valley. Extreme Heat Warnings and Watches are
in effect from portions of Arizona through Washington. This type
of heat will be dangerous, posing a threat to anyone without
effective cooling and adequate hydration. Numerous daily high
temperature records are likely. For many areas, there will be
little nighttime relief from the extreme heat, with overnight lows
remaining well above normal. Numerous nighttime temperature
records are likely. Extreme heat is dangerous even at night when
temperatures don`t cool down. Without A/C or cooling, the body
can`t recover, increasing the risk of heat illness. The most
extreme heat will begin to subside across the Southwest and
California after Sunday, but for areas in the Pacific Northwest,
the extreme heat is likely to continue into the middle of next
week before finally waning.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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