716
FXUS01 KWBC 020731
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 02 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 04 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies/Southwest and southern
Mid-Atlantic as well as Eastern Gulf Coast, on Wednesday and
Eastern Gulf Coast on Thursday...

On Wednesday, a front along the Northeast Coast to Central
Appalachians and Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys will have the
northern portion of the boundary dissipate east of the Northeast
Coast by Thursday. The southern part extending from the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast/Central Gulf will become quasi-stationary
along the Gulf and Southeast Coast by Thursday evening and
dissipate by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the boundary from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the
Southeast/Eastern Gulf Coast and will produce heavy rain over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Gulf Coast.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and a
second area over the Eastern Gulf Coast through Thursday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop over parts of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Eastern Gulf Coast from Thursday through Friday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable. Further, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday and
Thursday.

In addition, another front will move southward out of Eastern
Canada by Wednesday afternoon into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes and advance southeastward off the Northeast
Coast by Friday. On Thursday, the system will produce showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes on Wednesday and over the Northeast and Great
Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, a front moving over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday
advances to the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies and into the
Great Basin by Friday. On Wednesday, the boundary will produce
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain
Region. Furthermore, as the front moves into the Northern High
Plains on Thursday, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
will also occur over the region.

Additionally, on Wednesday, an upper-level low along the
Central/Southern California Coast will produce scattered showers
and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin.
Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Southern Rockies with
moisture streaming northwestward over the Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies and Southwest will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the area.  Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies and Southwest
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday over the
Central/Southern High Plains, Central/Southern Rockies, and
Southwest.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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