357
FXUS01 KWBC 191914
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 20 2025 - 00Z Tue Apr 22 2025

...Heavy rain and flooding threats into Sunday morning from the
Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley...

...Severe weather likely from the Southern Plains into the Lower
Arkansas, Lower Missouri Valleys and into the Mid Mississippi
Valley...

...Below average temperature across the mid section of the nation,
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while above average
temperatures are likely across the Southwest, Great Basin,
Northern Plains and southeast quarter of the CONUS...

An active spring storm pattern expected over the next 2 days from
the Southern to Central Plains, northeastward into the Lower
Missouri Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley region.  Thunderstorms
expected to become increasingly active from Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night/early Sunday along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary stretching from northern Texas, across eastern Oklahoma
into southern Missouri.  With little movement expected to this
front into Sunday morning, there will be the potential for repeat
rounds of thunderstorms to move along this front.  This will lead
to widespread heavy precipitation totals of 2 to 4 inches in the
vicinity of this front and increasing likelihood of flooding,
especially where repeat rounds of thunderstorms move across.
During Sunday morning, an area of low pressure is expected to
develop along the slow moving front over northern Texas/southern
Oklahoma, with this low then moving northeastward into northern
Missouri by Sunday evening and into the Upper Great Lakes by
Monday evening.   As this area of low pressure moves
northeastward, the associated frontal boundaries emanating from
this system will become more progressive.  While showers and
thunderstorms are still expected to be active later Sunday into
Monday with this system as it pushes northeastward, the increased
progression of the area of low pressure and the associated frontal
boundaries will lead to a lessening of the heavy precipitation
threat through the Mississippi Valley into the Upper Lakes region
compared to what occurs Saturday night into early Sunday over the
Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley region.

While the heavy precipitation threat decreases during Sunday
afternoon into Monday, the active thunderstorms with this system
will support potential for widespread severe weather from the
Southern Plains into the Lower Arkansas, Lower Missouri and Mid
Mississippi Valley region from Saturday evening/night into Sunday
night.  High winds and large hail will be the greatest risk across
the Southern Plains into the Lower Arkansas Valleys from Saturday
night into early Sunday.  Later on Sunday large hail and high
winds will remain a threat from the Lower Arkansas and Lower
Missouri Valley, while the tornado threat increases compared to
the Saturday night into early Sunday time frame.

Cooler than average temperatures likely across the mid section of
the nation from the Southern Plains, northeastward into the Upper
Lakes where precipitation will be active, producing widespread
cloudy conditions.  Below average temperatures also likely in the
wake of a cold front pressing eastward across the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies Saturday night/early Sunday.
Above average temperatures likely across the Southwest, Great
Basin and a large portions of the southeast quarter of the CONUS
from Florida, the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Southern to Central
Appalachians, Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.   Across these
regions, a few record highs are possible Sunday, with more
widespread record high morning low temperatures from the
Mid-Atlantic across the Central to Southern Appalachians, and into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions possible Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday mornings.


Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$