283
FXUS01 KWBC 160800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four
Corners, north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the
next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the
south-central U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall across the North-Central Plains and Missouri Valley
as it begins to gradually lift northward over the next few days.
In the near-term, heavy rainfall and flash flooding is anticipated
over northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning beneath
training showers and thunderstorms within a Moderate Risk area.
This afternoon, the front will lift northward and begin to shift
the threat of scattered heavy rainfall towards the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley through Friday.

The Southwest is equally busy with heavy rainfall as an
upper-level trough funnels monsoonal moisture into the Four
Corners region. Portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico have
been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall today, with
upwards of 2-3" of rain where storms focus. The coverage of
rainfall will lessen tomorrow as a moisture-laden disturbance
pulls away, although widely scattered flash flooding is still a
concern as these storms overlap with today`s activity.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning
to dip into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal
temperatures. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the
persistent heat dome remains strong across the South, resulting in
a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures
in the low 70s and upper 60s can be expected north of the
slow-moving front in the Central Plains and Midwest, compared to
upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front across the
Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. Unfortunately,
the western end of the front lifting northward means that the
hazardous heat is here to stay this week across the South. In
fact, high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to lower 100s
will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley where Heat Advisories remain in effect.
Meanwhile, a stationary front on the southern edge of the heat
dome will move across the Florida Peninsula, bringing daily
downpours across much of the Sunshine State, although excessive
rainfall is not expected from this activity.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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