736
FXUS01 KWBC 170744
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 12Z Sat May 17 2025 - 12Z Mon May 19 2025

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall potential located across
portions of the Northeast and much of the Southern Plains today...

...Storm system spreading unsettled weather across the West this
weekend to eject into the Central Plains Sunday night and spark
the next round of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms for
the Nation`s Heartland...

...Record-breaking heat expected to continue across much of the
Gulf Coast, with above average temperatures extending throughout
the South this weekend...


The overall weather pattern heading into this weekend will be
influenced by two upper level features and their associated
surface reflections. For today, an upper low churning over the
Great Lakes will slide eastward towards the Northeast, which will
spark numerous thunderstorms across the Interior Northeast and
northern New England. Storms could turn severe across northeast
New York, western Massachusetts, and Vermont, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary hazard. Additionally, heavy rain could
lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Along an attached
frontal boundary sweeping across the Mid-Atlantic and into the
southern Plains, an additional area of severe thunderstorms is
anticipated to develop by this afternoon along and east of a sharp
dry line over Northwest Texas. Strong to severe storms are most
likely to push eastward and impact northern Texas with large to
very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) for severe weather across North Texas.

The next upper level feature of note is a potent trough entering
the West today that will spread widespread showers and gusty winds
to the Great Basin and Rockies this weekend. In fact, temperatures
aloft will drop cold enough to support heavy snowfall at some high
elevations of Utah, Idaho, southwest Montana, Wyoming, and
Colorado. On the warm side of the system, strong southwesterly
winds will prompt critical fire weather across much of southern
New Mexico and West Texas into early next week. Once this system
ejects into the central U.S. Sunday night and interacts with warm
Gulf moisture streaming northward, numerous thunderstorm complexes
are likely to develop from the central Plains and mid-Mississippi
Valley as well as extending east of the dry line bisecting the
southern Plains. All modes of severe weather are possible along
with the potential for flash flooding late this weekend through
early next week. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the
greatest potential for severe weather Sunday night across northern
Oklahoma and central/eastern Kansas, with the threat gradually
shifting east on Monday. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued for much of eastern Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma into the Ozarks Sunday night into Monday, with a larger
Slight Risk on Monday encompassing all of Missouri and extending
southwest into northern Texas. Residents and visitors are advised
to check their local forecast office for the latest updates and
have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

Above average and potentially record-breaking temperatures are
forecast to continue throughout the Gulf Coast states this
weekend. Widespread highs are expected to reach into the 90s over
the next few days, with mid-to-upper 90s through parts of
southern/southeastern Texas and the Florida Peninsula. These
regions also happen to fall where several daily records could be
exceeded. Be sure to follow proper heat safety, especially given
this is considered the first taste of summer heat this season.

Elsewhere, well below average temperatures are forecast throughout
the Northern Tier, where highs will generally remain in the 50s
(outside of New England today). Low temperatures will drop towards
freezing across the Dakotas and has prompted Freeze Warnings as
well as Frost Advisories to be issued.


Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$