283
FXUS01 KWBC 161842
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 17 2026 - 00Z Wed Aug 19 2026

...Severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats
continue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and across the
central High Plains...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast, while
building into the Southwest early this week...

Unsettled weather and scattered thunderstorms will continue to
rotate around a large upper high stretching across the Southern
Tier and along frontal boundaries draped from the central High
Plains to the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. For the short
term, through tonight and early Monday morning, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could turn severe along the central High
Plains and across a corridor extending from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Most likely hazards associated with
any severe thunderstorms are forecast to involve large hail
throughout the High Plains, an isolated tornado or two for the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, as well as scattered damaging wind
gusts. Intense rainfall rates may also occur with thunderstorms
and create the potential for flash flooding, this is especially
the case across parts of West Virginia, where a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. This region and
terrain remain overly sensitive to additional rainfall given
complex geography and prior heavy rain. Be sure to have multiple
ways of receiving alerts and have a plan should severe weather or
flash flooding take place.

For the remainder of the day on Monday, the threat for strong
thunderstorms shift to the Carolinas, southern Appalachians, and
eastern Tennessee Valley as a cold front gradually sinks
southward. Chances for additional moderate to heavy rainfall
amounts persist across much of the southern/central Appalachians
as well and could lead to additional instances of flash flooding.
Meanwhile, the next system dropping southward into the Northern
Plains will help spark clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
across the central Plains, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe weather spans from central Nebraska to southwest Minnesota.
By Tuesday, an associated frontal boundary is expected to stretch
from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and will be the focus
for another round of active weather, which will include yet again
the potential for more severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
potential.

The other major weather story for the Lower 48 through early this
week is dangerous heat. Although it is mid-August, record-breaking
and abnormally hot temperatures are set to impact areas from the
Southern Plains to the Southeast. This will include highs into the
upper 90s and low 100s, as well as heat indices up to 115 degrees
F. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by
limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to
A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends,
neighbors, and family members. Additionally, the Southwest begins
to heat up once again on Monday and Tuesday as high temperatures
begin to climb back into widespread 100s and into the 110s.
Extreme Heat Watches are in effect for much of southern NV,
northwest AZ, and southeast CA, with Extreme Heat Warnings
spanning from southern AZ to the deserts of far southeast CA.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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