750
FXUS01 KWBC 222001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 23 2025 - 00Z Wed Jun 25 2025

...There are Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across much
of the eastern third of the country...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Rockies on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
southwestern Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and northern
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, as well as Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on
Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern Plains, and Central/Southern High Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as well as
Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central
Plains on Monday...

There is an upper-level high over the Ohio Valley that will be
quasi-stationary through Tuesday that will contribute to Extreme
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across much of the eastern third
of the country. Extreme heat shifts east over the Midwest and
Great Lakes on Sunday and expands to the East Coast by Monday.
Light winds, sunny days, record-high daytime, and high overnight
temperatures will create a lack of overnight cooling,
significantly increasing the danger. This heat level can be
dangerous to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration, especially those engaging in lengthy outdoor
activities. Heat-related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing. Take
action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

In addition, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Northern/Central Plains and Central Rockies and then into the
Great Basin will move slowly eastward to the Lower Great Lakes,
the Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains by Tuesday
evening. Moisture pooling along the boundary and east of the
dryline will produce showers and severe thunderstorms from the
Northern Plains and Central/Southern High Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains and
Central/Southern High Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through
Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two
inches or greater over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, moisture will stream northwestward over Texas and
interact with upper-level energy to produce showers and
thunderstorms, creating heavy rain over parts of southwestern
Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Therefore, through Monday
morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New
Mexico.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, upper-level energy over the Northeast and moisture
rounding the periphery of the upper-level ridge will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Additionally, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic
through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, on Sunday, moisture and upper-level impulses will
trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.

On Monday, moisture will continue to flow along the front over the
Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central
Plains, producing showers and severe thunderstorms in the areas.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lake/Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from Monday through Tuesday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
covering parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the
Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains from Monday
through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moisture and daytime heating will also produce showers and
thunderstorms on Monday over most of the eastern third of the
country.

Elsewhere, on Sunday, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies
will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies, which will
taper off by Monday.

On Tuesday, moisture will continue to stream over the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains into the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley. The moisture and energy will produce showers,
thunderstorms, and heavy rain over the Southern Rockies.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies on Tuesday.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Further, heavy rain will develop river parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper /Middle Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains
and Upper /Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.  The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains on Tuesday.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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