494
FXUS01 KWBC 192006
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 20 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 22 2024

...Heavy snow winding down over parts of the Central Rockies...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern High Plains on Saturday and Sunday...

An upper-level low over the Southeast will slowly weaken and move
to the Central Plains by Monday evening. The system will produce
an isolated area of heavy snow overnight Saturday into Sunday over
the Central Rockies and then taper off light snow over the Central
Rockies on Sunday evening into Monday.

In addition, the dynamic associated with the upper-low will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
High Plains through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, the storm will produce heavy rain over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains through Sunday morning.   The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the showers and severe thunderstorms continue over the
Southern High Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Meanwhile, a weakening front extending from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Central High Plains will produce light rain over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday evening.

Furthermore, onshore flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern portion of
Texas through Monday evening. Additionally, onshore flow off the
Atlantic will produce scattered showers over parts of Florida
through Monday evening.

Elsewhere, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest
overnight Saturday and move inland to the Northern Plains,
Northern Rockies, and Northern California by Monday evening. The
system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
through Monday. After the front passes the Cascades, snow will
develop over parts of the highest elevations of the Cascades on
Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$