323
FXUS01 KWBC 290743
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 01 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Central Plains/Central High Plains on Sunday...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central
Plains and then into the Central Rockies will move eastward to the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi
Valley, and into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary
over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe over parts of the
Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central
Plains/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.  The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic will aid
in producing showers and strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes and hail.

South of the front, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and
moisture will create showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
and the Southeast. Similarly, upper-level impulses, daytime
heating, and moisture will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern High Plains. Also, on Sunday, scattered rain
showers will develop over parts of Northern New England as low
pressure moves eastward into Southeastern Canada.

On Monday, as the front moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Moreover, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, the Gulf Coast States into the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains.

Upper-level ridging will build into parts of the Pacific
Northwest, prompting Heat Advisories over parts of Washington
State, Oregon, and Idaho from Monday morning into Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$