724
FXUS01 KWBC 160736
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025

...Additional heavy rainfall likely in Southern California on
Monday, prompting concerns for additional flash flooding and a
threat for rock slides...

...Wintry mix across northern New York, Great Lakes, and interior
New England, with several inches of snow in the higher elevations
possible....

...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across Texas into
early next week...

The occluded low pressure system is traversing eastward through
the Southwest tonight. The broad footprint of the storm will
continue to bring unsettled conditions and a mix of convective and
stratiform rain from California to Utah. Continued rainfall over
saturated soils will create low chances of seeing flooding,
whether in the form of hydrologic or flash flooding. Another
potent upper low will swing into Southern California from the
Pacific on Monday and bring a renewed threat for flash flooding.
Impacts may include flash flooding, and perhaps some rock slides,
in urban areas, burn scars, coastal mountain ranges, and areas
compromised by the previous storm. The Weather Prediction Center
has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in effect to account for
the possible impacts. On Tuesday, Arizona and Utah may see
increased chances for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
as the system moves eastward.

A deepening cyclone and attendant cold front moving through the
East tonight will set the stage for winter weather impacts, mostly
confined to the Great Lakes and New England. Maine may see the
highest winter weather impacts as snow fills in across the state
tomorrow into Monday due to the proximity of the low pressure
system and cooling temperatures. Maine could snowfall
accumulations between 4-9 inches and gusty winds. Wrap around
moisture could bring enhanced snowfall to northeastern Great Lakes
and to the Adirondacks, Green, and White mountain ranges. Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across
the region.

From snow to record warmth, Texas and the southern Plains will be
rather toasty for November as numerous cities may break daily
record high temperatures as the mercury rises into the upper 80s
across major Texas metros to the 90s across the Rio Grande. This
is courtesy of strong mid-level ridging over the area. The warm
temperatures look to persist into midweek and spread eastward
towards the South towards the latter half of the week.

The western storm system will continue to track towards the Plains
by early this week. Moisture will return across the central part
of the country and into the Mississippi Valley ahead of an
advancing weak area of low pressure. Thunderstorm chances will be
first be possible across the Mountain West today and Monday and
then across the Plains and Mid-South states.

Lastly, there will be some fire weather concerns across the
southern Mid-Atlantic region and the Ohio Valley today and perhaps
into early work week as breezy post-frontal winds and low relative
humidities will be conducive to fire spread.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$