364
FXUS01 KWBC 290801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 31 2025

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible across
portions of the Northern/Central Plains today...

...Excessive rainfall concerns in Southwest today followed by
Southern/Central High Plains on Wednesday...

...Prolonged and expansive heatwave peaks in Southeast through
mid-week...


Shortwave energy interacting with anomalous moisture and
instability along a surface front will produce afternoon/evening
storms across portions of the Northern/Central Plains today.
Storms initiating in eastern Montana are forecast to congeal into
a mesoscale convective system and sweep across parts of the
Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska and Iowa by Wednesday morning. Slight
risks of excessive rainfall (at least 15% chance) and severe
thunderstorms (level 2/5) are in effect for many of the
aforementioned areas with damaging winds and hail possible. Storms
are then expected to pick back up again over the Midwest on
Wednesday where there should be enough moisture and instability
present to support additional heavy rain/flash flooding. A slight
risk of excessive rainfall is in effect across portions of Iowa,
Missouri, Illinois and western Indiana on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, shortwave energy cycling around the western periphery
of an upper ridge should continue to pull tropical moisture into
the Southwest this week. Scattered to isolated diurnal storms may
pose flash flooding risk to vulnerable surfaces such as burn scars
in New Mexico today. The arrival of a cold front will provide a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity in the Central/Southern
Plains on Wednesday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in
effect for portions of eastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas,
northeastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle
as a result.

A strong upper ridge will continue to generate a dangerous and
prolonged heatwave across the Central and Eastern U.S. through the
end of the month. Daily high temperatures well into the 90s and
100s with little to no overnight relief will be particularly
dangerous to those without adequate cooling or hydration. The heat
is also likely to break daily temperature records through the
week, especially across Florida today with highs around 100
degrees. In the Northeast today, highs in the mid to upper 90s may
tie or break existing temperature records as well. Numerous warm
minimum temperature records are also expected.


Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$