096
FXUS01 KWBC 171933
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 00Z Sun May 18 2025 - 00Z Tue May 20 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Northern New England on Saturday, and a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern Plains and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley
from Saturday through Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southern
Rockies on Saturday and Sunday...

A front extending from the Northeast southward to the southern
Mid-Atlantic and then westward to the Southern Plains will move
eastward off the East Coast by Sunday. The boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of Northern New England through Sunday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain
over parts of Northern New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
Northern New England through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable, as well as landslides on roads.

Moreover, the associated upper-level energy over the Great Lakes
will produce rain over parts of the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley through early Sunday morning. As the upper-level energy
moves eastward to New England, it will create rain over the area
on Sunday through Monday evening.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, another front over the Great Basin
eastward into the Central Rockies and Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Central/Southern Plains into the Southern Rockies
by Monday evening. East of the front, moisture will stream
northward over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,
developing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail,
two inches or greater over the region.

The energy associated with the storm will produce rain and showers
over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and
Great Basin on Saturday. On Sunday, the energy will move over the
Rockies, producing rain and showers over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies, moving into the Northern Plains on
Monday.

On Sunday, the upper-level energy moves eastward, drawing moisture
northward over the Central/Southern Plains, creating showers and
severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern
Plains from Sunday through Monday morning.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there
is an added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or
greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Sunday through Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, with low-lying areas the most vulnerable,
and landslides on roads.

On Monday, the front moves onto the Central/Southern Plains and
produces more showers and severe thunderstorms over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains on Monday.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop heavy
rain over the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the
Ohio Valley on Monday.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, with low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and
landslides on roads.

Additionally, a third front will move onshore on Monday over the
Pacific Northwest. The boundary will produce rain and showers over
the Northwest.

Elsewhere, dry air, dry fuels, and gusty winds over the Southern
Rockies on Saturday and Sunday prompted a Critical Risk of fire
weather over the region.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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