651
FXUS01 KWBC 101957
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 11 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 13 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk in the Southwest and Four
Corners Region continues into this weekend as tropical moisture
flows in from the Pacific...

...Coastal storm to bring heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds up much of the East Coast
this weekend...

...Storm system to bring lower elevation rain and higher elevation
snow, heavy at times, to the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain
West...

Widespread, heavy rain producing thunderstorms are forecast to
continue throughout the Southwest and Four Corners region as a
deep upper-trough slowly passes eastward over the western U.S. and
moisture associated with both Priscilla and Raymond flows in from
the Pacific. This anomalously high moisture will contribute to
locally heavy downpours with rain rates possibly reaching 1-2" at
times bringing a potentially significant flash flood risk. For
today (Friday), Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4)
cover portions of southern Utah and north-central Arizona where
the most confidence exists for scattered to widespread instances
of flash flooding. Slight Risks (level 2/4) are in place
throughout much of the rest of the Southwest/Four Corners region
today and tomorrow, where more scattered flash flooding will be
possible. Rainfall will focus on southeast Arizona/southwest New
Mexico on Sunday, with a continued risk of scattered flash
flooding. This is especially true for more vulnerable terrain such
as slot canyons and burn scars, as well as for urban areas.
Unfortunately, storms, heavy rainfall, and the flash flood risk
look to linger into early next week.

Further to the north, this upper-trough and associated surface
frontal system will bring widespread precipitation elsewhere
across much of the Pacific Northwest today and into the
Intermountain West this weekend. Rain is expected for lower
elevations, with locally heavy rainfall possible particularly
throughout portions of the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies/High Plains on Saturday, and some isolated flash flooding
is possible. In addition, snow, heavy at times, is likely for
higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Rockies, especially
on Saturday. Winter weather-related Warnings and Advisories are in
place for portions of the northern Rockies as totals of 3-6",
locally as much as 12-15", will be possible. Some of the mountain
valleys may see some snow mix in Saturday night into Sunday, and
while accumulations are expected to remain minor, caution is
advised throughout the region given this is the first snow of the
season for many locations.

Meanwhile, a strong coastal low expected to develop in the
Atlantic off the coast of the Southeast will bring significant
impacts to much of the East Coast through this weekend and into
early next week. Heavy rainfall is expected from coastal Florida
to the Carolinas today, continuing through the Carolinas on
Saturday, and stretching into the coastal Mid-Atlantic to southern
New England on Sunday. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in
effect for coastal North Carolina Saturday and the Mid-Atlantic to
portions of southern New England Sunday as scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible, with more isolated instances
elsewhere through the weekend. Coastal flood-related advisories
stretch almost the length of the East Coast, with a particular
concern for portions of the Mid-Atlantic where the combination of
strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may
lead to major coastal flooding. This would flood roadways and
potentially affect some homes and businesses near the waterfront.
High surf and rip currents are also expected along many East Coast
beaches, and will likely lead to areas of beach erosion. There is
also an increasing threat of significant wind gusts, in excess of
55 mph, especially along coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic, and
scattered power outages will be possible.

Elsewhere, a couple upper-waves will bring some shower chances to
the Great Lakes region through this evening, and to portions of
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this weekend. Temperature-wise,
the East Coast will see highs around to possibly just below
average following a frontal passage and with cloud
cover/precipitation throughout much of the region associated with
the coastal low. Highs will generally be in the 60s from the
Mid-Atlantic north, and into the 70s from the Carolinas south. An
upper-ridge will lead to widespread, well above average conditions
across much of the Plains and into the Midwest, with highs into
the 60s for the Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes, the 70s across the
northern Plains and into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, 80s
in the central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and 80s to
low 90s for the southern Plains/Texas. The upper-trough over the
west will bring much cooler, below average temperatures, with
widespread 50s expected throughout the Intermountain West, Pacific
Northwest, and northern California, and 70s to 80s for southern
California into the Desert Southwest.

Putnam



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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