397
FXUS01 KWBC 030735
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Aug 05 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains and the Southeast on Sunday and the Southeast on
Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains on Sunday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the
Northeast...

A front extending from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast
to the Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through
Tuesday. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms,
accompanied by heavy rain, over parts of the Southeast. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southeast through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, upper-level energy and a steady source of moisture
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

In addition to the heavy rain over the Southern Plains, showers
and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional tornadoes.
Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain
Region from the late afternoon to the late evening on Sunday.

On Monday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a
lingering boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southeast from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a strong upper-level impulse moving over the Northern
Intermountain Region and another area of upper-level energy moving
over the Northern/Central Plains will produce showers and strong
to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region into the Northern High Plains and a second area over parts
of the Northern Plains/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued two regions of a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern High Plains and the Northern Plains/Central High
Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat for
tornadoes. Also on Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the Central/Southern Plains, as well as parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality
Alerts over the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and
parts of the U.S./Canadian border in the Northeast on Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$