785
FXUS01 KWBC 301959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 31 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 02 2026

...Dangerous, near-record heat expands across West through the
weekend...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...

...Daily rounds of heavy downpours bring localized flash flooding
risks to the Southeast...


A robust upper-level high pressure ridge centered over the
Southwestern United States will maintain a major to extreme heat
wave across much of the western United States through the weekend.
Extreme and near-record temperatures are forecast from interior
California through the Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and Four
Corners Region, with lower desert locations reaching well above
110 degrees. Further north, a dry cold front moving across the
Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies will
bring gusty winds and very low humidity. This atmospheric setup
will produce widespread critical fire weather conditions on
Saturday across parts of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oregon,
and Nevada.

Meanwhile, a potent upper-level disturbance and accompanying
surface low pressure system will track from the Midwest into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday. A moist and unstable
air mass ahead of the advancing cold front will support multiple
rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms. These storms will pose
a threat for severe weather, including damaging wind gusts, hail
and isolated tornadoes, along with high rainfall rates. A Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for areas where
repeated rounds of thunderstorms could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a lingering surface
boundary combined with deep tropical moisture will keep an active
pattern in place into the weekend. Daily scattered to widespread
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours.
Repeated rounds of rain will maintain an ongoing threat for
localized flash flooding across portions of the Gulf Coast, Deep
South, and central Appalachians, while widespread cloud cover and
precipitation offer a slight relief from recent high heat.


Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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