268
FXUS01 KWBC 190800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Aug 21 2025

...Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected along the
beaches of the East Coast this week as Hurricane Erin passes by to
the east; tropical storm conditions possible for the Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday...

...Rounds of thunderstorms expected across much of the eastern to
south-central and southwestern U.S. with isolated flash flooding
possible, with a locally higher threat across the southern
Appalachians Tuesday...

...Hazardous heat continues across the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley Tuesday and will begin to build over the Desert Southwest
Wednesday...

Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected for many of
the beaches along the East Coast this week as Hurricane Erin
begins to track northward and pass by to the east. Beachgoers
should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach
warning flags, and if in doubt do not venture out. In addition,
tropical storm conditions are possible for the North Carolina
Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday including strong winds, heavy
rain/isolated flooding, and a storm surge of up to 2-4 feet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday along a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingering across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas southwest through Georgia and into the
southern Appalachians. Locally heavy rainfall and some isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible. A focus of greater
moisture and instability along the southern Appalachians will
bring the threat of some more intense downpours and a greater risk
of scattered flash flooding given the more complex terrain, and a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been introduced.
Another cold front stretching from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley southwest through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into
the southern Plains will bring a scattered chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday. Locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will
be possible for these regions as well. The front will push
southward on Wednesday into the northern Mid-Atlantic,
Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Texas with another round of thunderstorms and risk of isolated
flash flooding expected. Further west, Monsoonal moisture across
portions of the Southwest will lead to some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday-Wednesday. Brief but heavy
downpours will bring the threat for some isolated instances of
flash flooding particularly along the more sensitive terrain of
the local mountain ranges and any burn scars. Elsewhere, scattered
afternoon thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday-Wednesday across
Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Some isolated storms will
accompany a passing frontal system across the northern High Plains
on Thursday.

Another day of very hot and muggy conditions is forecast across
portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains Tuesday. Heat-related warnings and advisories are in place
as heat indices climb into the 105-110 degree range, with some
110+ heat indices possible along the Lower Mississippi Valley and
west through the ArkLaTex. A cold front will bring some relief
from these more extreme conditions to more northern areas across
the Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday, though temperatures will
remain hot. An upper-level ridge building over the
northern/central High Plains, Intermountain West, and Southwest
will also bring above average, very hot temperatures. Highs will
reach into the 90s and low 100s for most locations, with low 110s
for the Desert regions of the Southwest. Heat Advisories are in
effect across the northern High Plains through Wednesday where
temperatures will be locally well above average, and Extreme Heat
Warnings have been issued for the Desert Southwest beginning
Wednesday. Much of the region will be under Moderate to Major Heat
Risk (levels 2/3 of 4), indicating a level of heat that can affect
anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration,
especially those more sensitive to heat. Meanwhile, a cold front
has brought unseasonably cooler temperatures to the Northeast this
week, with highs mainly in the 70s. Below average temperatures
will also continue along the West Coast Tuesday as highs remain in
the 60s and 70s along the coast and 80s inland. The building
upper-ridge will begin to bring a warming trend by Wednesday.
Generally seasonable conditions can be expected across the
Midwest, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and across the Southeast
and Plains with highs into the 90s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$