281
FXUS01 KWBC 042001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
will slowly shift southward across the lower Upper Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic during the Labor Day weekend...

...Monsoonal moisture could trigger scattered flash flooding in
parts of Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler
air expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

The forecast remains on track for a deepening upper-level low and
associated cold front over Atlantic Canada to sustain a corridor
of strong to severe thunderstorms and scattered heavy rainfall
from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the first half
of Labor Day weekend. This afternoon, the focus for thunderstorms
will roughly extend from Detroit to D.C. ahead of the cold front,
before the severe and heavy rain threat migrates into the Central
and Southern Appalachians tomorrow as the front sinks southward.
Eventually, the front will settle into the Southeast on Sunday,
leading to scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated heavy
rainfall. Rainfall aside, the frontal passage will also provide
some much needed relief from the heat in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures in the mid-70`s and low 80`s
can be expected by Sunday.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across mainly
Arizona and New Mexico where showers and thunderstorms will be
most active during the late-day hours with locally heavy rain over
the next several days. WPC maintains a Slight Risks (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall straddling across Arizona-New Mexico border for
today. Urban areas and also dry washes and burn scars will be most
vulnerable to flooding. Farther north, an unusually deep
upper-level low and frontal system will push widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms through the Northwest and Northern
Plains on Sunday, with a nonzero chance of localized flooding
issues. Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be quite pleasant
across the West this weekend as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees
below normal.

In contrast, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in
the Nation`s Heartland as an upper-level ridge remains anchored
over the midsection of the country. Heat indices of 105 to 110
degrees and record warm overnight temperatures will be widespread
across the Central/Southern Plains States and Mississippi Valley
this weekend. See WPC`s Key Messages for more information on the
heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay
hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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