399
FXUS01 KWBC 230753
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 23 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025

...Atmospheric River bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and
scattered instances of flooding to the Northwest through early
next week...

...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along the
Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula...

...Temperatures continue to slowly moderate this weekend across
the southern and eastern U.S. as most of the country trends
towards a period of milder temperatures...

An active Pacific storm track/Atmospheric River will continue to
bring very heavy rain, scattered instances of flooding, and gusty
winds from the Pacific Northwest/far northern California inland
through the northern Great Basin and Rockies the next couple of
days. Very moist, mild air from the Pacific will keep snow levels
high in the Pacific Northwest and allow for persistent showers and
a few thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall along upslope regions
of the Olympics, Coastal Ranges, and Cascades. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for portions of these
regions Sunday and Monday as increasing rainfall totals may lead
to a few scattered instances of flooding. Moisture will also
spread further inland bringing heavy rain to the northern Great
Basin and especially across the northern Rockies. The mild air and
higher snow levels will allow for both heavy rainfall and runoff
from snowmelt to lead to some isolated instances of flooding here
as well, particularly on Sunday. Some very strong winds with gusts
up to 60 mph will be possible through the region, especially for
areas of the northern Rockies/High Plains Sunday night and into
the day Monday. For the higher mountain elevations that do see
snow it will be heavy, particularly for the northern Cascades and
through central Idaho into northwest Wyoming.

Moisture flowing northward around a low pressure system passing
west to east across the Gulf will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast through Sunday and
spread eastward across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Locally
heavy downpours are expected, particularly for areas of South
Florida Monday where some isolated instances of flooding in urban
areas will be possible. Elsewhere, a pair of quick moving
upper-level shortwaves will bring some isolated to scattered light
rain/snow showers from the northern Plains east through the Great
Lakes and into the interior Northeast.

Conditions will continue to slowly moderate across the southern
U.S. this weekend and into early next week following the frigid
Arctic blast last week. Temperatures will still be a bit below
average on Sunday, with highs mostly in the 50s and low 60s
through the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs will finally get back
to average to above average levels by Monday with highs more
uniformly into the 60s. The Northeast will also see a warm-up with
highs on Sunday in the 30s and 40s rising into the 40s and 50s on
Monday. An expanding area of broad upper-level ridging will keep
conditions well above average across the western and central U.S.
Forecast highs the next couple of days generally range from the
40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Interior West, northern
Plains, and Midwest; the 50s and 60s for the central Plains; the
60s and 70s for California and the southern Plains; and the 80s in
the Desert Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$