070
FXUS01 KWBC 191947
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 20 2025 - 00Z Tue Jul 22 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Northern Plains on
Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern/Central High Plains, Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and parts of the
Northeast and Northern Plains on Sunday...

On Saturday, a front extending from the Great Lakes to the Central
Plains and northwestward into the Northern High Plains will move
eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Ohio
Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Northern High Plains
by Monday. Moisture pooling along the front over the Ohio Valley
will produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain,
over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio Valley through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. Additionally, many streams may flood, potentially
impacting larger rivers.

Additionally, the front will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

The boundary will also produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Sunday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of hail two
inches or greater over the area. Additionally, Air Quality Alerts
are in effect over northern Minnesota due to wildfires in Canada
from Saturday into Monday.

Furthermore, the warm front over the Mid-Atlantic region will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, on Sunday, moisture will continue to pool along the
front, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
with these thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys from Sunday into Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, on Sunday, the western end of the front will trigger
showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over parts
of the Northern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning.
 The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas
of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

As the front moves across parts of the Northeast, showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop over the area. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Northeast from Sunday into Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, on Sunday, showers and severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop over parts of the Northern Plains. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains from Sunday into
Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop south of the
front from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast and from
the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Northern Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms will also develop over the Rockies.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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