123
FXUS01 KWBC 041920
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024

...Record-breaking heat remains across California and the
Southwest through this weekend, while briefly overspreading
portions of the Plains and Midwest on Saturday...

...Strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast
throughout the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into
the High Plains...

...Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the immediate
Gulf Coast through Saturday, with more of a focus toward the
Florida Peninsula by late Sunday...

A late-season heatwave will continue this weekend across the
Southwest U.S. as high pressure aloft persists over the region.
Record or near-record high temperatures are forecast over a rather
widespread region including central and southern California
through the Desert Southwest where there will be temperatures
reaching over 100 degrees. Some of the interior deserts of the
Southwest my locally reach over 110 degrees. Heat-related
advisories and warnings are in place as the heat remains at levels
dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. As a
cold front crosses through the Northwest and ejects east across
the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday,
some of the heat across the interior of the West will also eject
east across portions of the Plains and Midwest where high
temperatures will be locally 20 to 25 degrees above average, which
may result in a few record-high temperatures here as well.

Aside from the heat-related hazards, another major concern through
the weekend will be strong winds and dangerous fire weather
conditions setting up in close proximity to the aforementioned
cold front crossing through the Northwest. This front will settle
down through the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies and High
Plains and will be accompanied by sufficiently high enough winds
for downed trees and power lines to occur. High-wind watches and
warnings are in effect. These winds coupled with the very warm and
dry airmass near the front will favor critical fire weather
conditions that will initially be over the northern Great Basin
and northern Rockies tonight through early Saturday, but will then
eject east out across the central High Plains Saturday afternoon
and evening, and will include areas of the Front Range from
Wyoming down into Colorado. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of fire weather across
many of these locations, and there are Red Flag Warnings and Fire
Weather Watches in effect.

Elsewhere, much of the rest of the country will be tranquil and
dry going through the weekend. However, exceptions will include
the Great Lakes and Northeast as a frontal system crosses the
region and brings a threat of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts though with this should be
relatively light. Also, there will be some concerns along areas of
the immediate Gulf Coast for locally heavy rainfall from areas of
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. A substantial amount of
moisture pooled around the Gulf of Mexico coupled with proximity
of a couple of low-level boundaries will be the main facilitators
of this. However, by later Sunday, there will tend to be a growing
threat of heavier rainfall and potentially some flooding concerns
toward parts of the Florida Peninsula as multiple areas of low
pressure begin to congregate offshore over the Gulf of Mexico
which will begin enhance the transport of moisture along a front
draped across the state.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$