512
FXUS01 KWBC 212016
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 22 2025 - 00Z Thu Jul 24 2025

...Dangerous oppressive heat to expand across the Central Plains,
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast through mid-week...

...Thunderstorms to pose a flash flood threat in portions of the
Southwest, Northwest, Midwest, Mid-South, and Southeast...

...Severe storms are likely in parts of the Midwest; Unseasonably
cooler & comfortable conditions in the Northeast...

The "Dog Days of Summer" are in full swing for most of the eastern
two-thirds of the country as a strengthening heat dome is forecast
to archor over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by mid-week.
Temperatures soaring into the upper 90s will be high enough to set
some localized daily records in the Southeast for late July.
Overnight/morning low temperatures dropping only into the mid to
upper 70s will challenge or break some warm minimum temperature
records. Meanwhile, heat indices from the Central Plains to the
Southeast will range between 100-110F each day, with locally
higher values possible. HeatRisk of major to locally extreme
levels across the Southeast today will gradually shift west into
the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley, and extend up into the upper
Midwest during the next couple of days. Extreme Heat Warnings are
in place for parts of the Central Plains and lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley together with Extreme Heat Watches across
the Midwest. Meanwhile, Heat Advisories spans from South Dakota
through much of the Southern Plains, Deep South, Southeast, and
all of Florida.  WPC continues to carry Key Messages for this
ongoing heat wave. Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat for
more information on tips for how to stay cool and safe when
dealing with oppressive heat.

Precipitation across the continental U.S. will be organized into a
so-called "Ring of Fire" around an upper-level ridge pattern over
the Southern U.S. and a series of disturbances traversing the
northern tier of the U.S. This ridge of high pressure is
channeling rich Gulf moisture north into the upper Midwest ahead
of a developing low pressure system. Meanwhile, a high pressure
system will continue to push a cold front down the East Coast with
a low pressure wave lingering over the Southeast. WPC maintains a
Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) for flash flooding in portions of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into tonight, with a Slight Risk in
place for parts of the Upper Midwest on Tuesday as anomalous
moisture over the Northwest and northern Rockies today advances
into the upper Midwest later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning
ahead of the developing low pressure system interacting with a
pair of frontal systems. Thunderstorms that develop in these area
could produce locally heavy rainfall from Montana eastward to the
upper Great Lakes, prompting the issuance of a Slight Risk (threat
level 1/4) for flash flooding on Tuesday in the upper Midwest.
Also on Tuesday, some monsoonal moisture will emerge over the
southern Rockies where late-day thunderstorms could lead to
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, prompting the issuance
of a Slight Risk. Across the Southeast, the aforementioned low
pressure wave is forecast to incorportate some tropical moisture
from the Atlantic Ocean to support locally heavy rainfall and a
slight risk of flash flooding on Tuesday. The low is forecast to
move westward, leading to a Marginal Risk of flash flooding to
extend west across the eastern half of the Gulf Coast by Wednesday
morning.

Speaking of instability, many of the aforementioned storms in the
Northern Plains and Midwest have the potential to be severe
through the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) over the northern High Plains
through tonight, gradually shifting east to the upper
Midwest/upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. In addition,
isolated severe storms are possible in the Central Plains and
Southeast each day. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
modes of severe weather, although the Northern Plains could also
contend with some tornadoes.

Elsewhere, regions expecting cooler than normal temperatures and a
more tranquil weather pattern to start the week are the Desert
Southwest and Northeast. The Northeast will witness atypically
cool and comfortable temperatures for late July with some
communities in northern New England struggling to get above 70
degrees. This period of cool/comfortable conditions in the
Northeast will be short lived as sultry conditions return by the
second half of the work-week.

Kong/Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$