709
FXUS01 KWBC 070749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 07 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 09 2025

...Heavy rain may cause flash flooding over the Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians today into tonight...

...Scattered flash flooding is possible across the Southwest,
particularly New Mexico...

A cold front is forecast to slowly move across the east-central
U.S. today and tonight, reaching the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday.
Gulf moisture streaming north will pool along and ahead of the
front, leading to rain and thunderstorms stretching from the Great
Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Appalachians into
the Southeast and Gulf Coast. The heaviest rain of around 2 to 4
inches is possible in Kentucky and vicinity. A Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall causing flash flooding is in effect
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
through tonight. Rain chances will march eastward with the front
tonight into Wednesday morning, reaching the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic before clearing out during the day Wednesday, though
lingering in the Carolinas. A weak surface trough may also lead to
showers and storms across the Florida Peninsula over the next
couple of days.

The backside of the frontal boundary is forecast to stall in the
Southwest with waves of low pressure. Combined with tropical
Pacific moisture starting to stream north, rain and thunderstorms
are likely for New Mexico in particular. A Slight Risk (level 2/4)
is also in place for parts of New Mexico for locally heavy rain
causing flash flooding today. Burn scars and urban areas will be
particularly vulnerable to flooding. The Storm Prediction Center
indicates a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather for
isolated high wind and hail threats across central New Mexico as
well. This will be the start of a multi-day period of
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the Southwest,
given tropical moisture streaming north from Hurricane Priscilla
in the eastern Pacific, though exact placement and rain amounts
will vary from day to day.

The cold front will be a dividing line between above normal
temperatures to its south and east, and near to below normal
temperatures behind it. Another warmer than average day is in
store from the Gulf Coast states toward the Eastern Seaboard
today. The Northeast should see the most anomalous temperatures of
10 to 20 degrees above normal as highs rise to around 80 degrees,
and a few daily record highs are possible. The cold frontal
passage by Wednesday will drop high temperatures to near normal
there. Behind the front, some Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
are in place for parts of the north-central U.S. this morning,
with some in Minnesota and Wisconsin lasting through Wednesday
morning. Highs are forecast to only be in the 60s as far south as
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles today, which is around 15 to 20
degrees below average. Cooler temperatures will start to moderate
closer to average by Wednesday, while areas of the Intermountain
West warm to above normal as an upper ridge builds. However, the
Pacific Northwest should cool on Wednesday as a cold front comes
in, also prompting light precipitation (with mix or snow possible
for the highest peaks of the Cascades).


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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