526
FXUS01 KWBC 031936
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 06 2025

...Record high temperatures likely across the Northern Plains,
Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes this weekend...

...Heavy rains and isolated flash flooding possible along the east
coast of Florida...

...A series of cold fronts moving across the West will bring much
cooler temperatures and drop mountain snow...

The overall synoptic pattern will generally favor below average
temperatures in the West and above average warmth in the central
and eastern U.S. into early next week. A cold front is moving
through the Inter-mountain West as of this afternoon. It will
continue moving eastward by Saturday as it approaches the Rockies
and the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a stronger continental cold
front will look to plunge southward across the Mountain West by
Saturday and move southward across the West on Sunday. Across the
Plains and East Coast, mid-level ridging will remain stout heading
into early next week. Florida and the Gulf Coast will see
seasonable temperatures with showers and thunderstorms scattered
across the region.

A mid-level ridge looks to remain in place across the central part
of the country through the weekend. The well advertised warm
temperatures look to peak on Saturday for the upper Midwest. Many
locations may reach near or surpass daily record high temperatures
on Saturday as the mercury approaches the middle to upper 80s. The
ridge will then build eastward towards the Northeast for the
weekend. Rising atmospheric heights and a retreating high pressure
system over New England will warm temperatures nicely into the low
and middle 80s for the weekend. This is about 10-15 degrees warmer
than average for early October in the region.

Florida looks to continue a rainy weather pattern over the next
few days as a mid-level disturbance and a weak surface low
pressure will persist over the Gulf and Atlantic. High moisture at
the surface and an influx of showers and thunderstorms from gusty
winds off the Atlantic Ocean will enable good chances of seeing a
couple of inches of rain over the weekend. WPC has 2-4 inches of
rainfall possible from today into Sunday afternoon from the
Treasure Coast to Jacksonville. There will be a threat for flash
flooding in any locally heavy thunderstorms. Therefore, WPC has
issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the Space and
Treasure Coast on Saturday and a  Marginal Risk across the east
coast of Florida on Sunday. Winds will also remain gusty on the
waters with a tight pressure gradient in the region; winds could
gust to 25 knots and bring rough seas to mariners. Southern
Louisiana will also see an increase in rain chances and QPF
through the weekend, and a Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding has
been added for Sunday to reflect this thinking.


A secondary, stronger cold front will push southward across the
Intermountain West and Rockies late Saturday and Sunday. This
front will bring chances for heavy high elevation snow,
particularly across Montana and Wyoming. Local forecast offices
have issued Winter Storm Warnings for mountain ranges in Montana
and Winter Weather Advisories in Wyoming. Temperatures will also
drop significantly behind the cold front on Saturday for the
northern Rockies. High temperatures in the 40s and 50s are likely
in the valleys on Sunday and Monday, and the mountains will likely
see high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Freeze Watches are also
in effect for the likelihood of morning temperatures below 32
degrees.

Lastly, there will be a chance for thunderstorms, some strong,
across the northern Rockies and northern Plains ahead of a cold
front entering the region tomorrow. The main hazards with the
storms should be gusty winds and some marginal hail with an
anticipated multi-cell storm mode. General thunderstorms will
accompany the front across the upper Midwest for the weekend.
Gusty gradient winds and dry fuels at the surface will introduce
fire weather concerns additionally.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$