800
FXUS01 KWBC 060634
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 08 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday...

...There are Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northwest and
Northern Rockies, along with Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings
over parts of the Upper Midwest...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee
Valley and then across parts of the Southern Plains will move
eastward to off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast, across the
Southeast to the Gulf Coast States by Monday. Showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over
parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rainfall over parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northeast through Sunday morning.  The associated heavy
rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the
most vulnerable.

Along the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic, southern Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and
the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Showers and rain will
develop over parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. Additionally, upper-level energy moving over the Great
Lakes will produce scattered showers over parts of the Midwest
through Sunday. Furthermore, a weak front lingering over Florida
will produce showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Upper-level
energy and ample moisture will produce rain and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday into Monday.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture, diurnal heating, and upper-level
impulses will produce showers and thunderstorms over the
Southwest, the Great Basin, the Central/Southern Rockies, and
southwestern Texas through Sunday. Due to an area of cold high
pressure moving over parts of the Upper Midwest, producing cold
temperatures over the region, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings
have been issued. Elsewhere, rain showers will develop over parts
of the Northwest through Monday.  Furthermore, smoke from
wildfires has prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of the
Northwest and Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$