339
FXUS01 KWBC 181925
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 19 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026

...Potential for severe storms across the central Plains with
heavy and flash flooding threats across the Midwest...

...Severe storms across mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday to
Wednesday night...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast while
building into the Southwest...


Around of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
developing across the northern Plains will move toward the  Upper
Midwest associated with a cold front.
Meanwhile,a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast over
northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, extreme southeastern Minnesota,
and farther south across the central Plains as the cold front from
the north collides with a warm front from the south. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are forecast from northeastern Colorado,
central Nebraska, northwestern and northeastern Kansas. WPC and
SPC both have Slight Risks out for Excessive Rainfall and severe
storms in the heart of the Midwest where flash flooding and storms
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may occur.

As the cold front continues to track east towards the Northeast on
Wednesday while low pressure in the southern Plains helps produce
additional storms from the central Rockies to as far east as the
Ohio Valley through Wednesday night. On Thursday, WPC and SPC both
have a level 2 risk for Excessive Rainfall and severe
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley. On Friday, as the
front progresses southward, WPC has a marginal risk of Excessive
Rainfall across much of the mid-South, the Mid-Atlantic, and
across the Desert Southwest.

Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains
mired in a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards.
Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common
with the Southeast at the heart of the anomalous heat through
today. By Wednesday, as upper-level ridging strengthens over the
Southwest, some cases of record breaking warmth are expected in
the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Extreme Heat Warnings
are in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with widespread
Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretching from the
Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City metro areas eastward to the
Southeast coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some
cases) that, when combined with oppressive dew points,
little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be
available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips
by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to
A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends,
neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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