394
FXUS01 KWBC 032004
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 04 2025 - 00Z Fri Jun 06 2025

...Widespread heavy rain is possible across the southern and
central Plains today and the next couple of days...

...Tropical moisture across South Florida is forecast to spread
further up the Florida Peninsula and into the coastal Southeast...

...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, as well as the
potential for scattered flash flooding, are expected across the
Four Corners into the central/southern High Plains...

The flash flood threat for the rest of this afternoon and evening
has increased across parts of central Kansas as a heavy line of
storms is slowly moving through the area ahead of a cold front
present across the region. The multiple inch rainfall totals
observed as of this afternoon and the high rainfall rates ongoing
in the thunderstorms has allowed the Weather Prediction Center to
issue a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for most of central
Kansas with further flash flood emergencies possible. Areas from
central Texas to Missouri are under a broader Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall through this evening as scattered flash
flooding is also possible along the front. Chances for heavy rain
continue along the boundary further south and east from central
Texas to Michigan for Wednesday with isolated flooding possible.
On Thursday, the frontal boundary should begin to lift northward
across the Plains, along with energy moving in from the west, and
refocus a greater threat for storms and flash flooding. WPC has
areas of north Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall as organizing storms may drop 2-3 inches of
rainfall across the region. A Marginal threat for Excessive
Rainfall also remains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on
Thursday due to the slow movement of the cold front. A Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall is also in effect across the Southwest
and Four Corners for Wednesday and Thursday  Corner as energy
along a stationary boundary sparks locally heavy afternoon
thunderstorms capable of bringing isolated flooding to sensitive
terrain.

For severe weather, a Marginal Risk for severe weather has been
issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday across the
eastern Midwest and across parts of the Southwest and southern
Plains. The Midwest can expect wind, some damaging gusts are
possible, and isolated large hail to be the main hazards. The
Southwest and southern Plains can also expect large hail and
damaging wind gusts with supercells that do develop. On Thursday,
energy from the West and favorable dynamics, is likely to trigger
another round of sever weather across the southern Plains. SPC has
issued a Slight Risk to demarcate the storm threat/level. A line
of storms is also expected across the Northeast along the cold
front and a few strong wind gusts are likely to persist.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture that has already brought heavy rain
across South Florida in the vicinity of a stalled front will
continue to interact with an upper-level trough moving into the
northeastern Gulf.  This interaction will lift the core of the
tropical moisture northward, leading to the threat of heavy rain
spreading up the Florida Peninsula for the remainder of today,
especially across South Florida. Widespread tropical showers and
storms are likely for tomorrow and have the potential to drop a
quick 1-2 inches where marginal flooding could be possible. An
area of low pressure then moves northward towards the Carolina and
Georgia coast on Thursday and bring locally heavy rain and
moisture to parts of the Southeast. It is worth mentioning that
the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the possibility for
this system to organize and develop subtropical or tropical
characteristics off the coast of the Southeast U.S. through the
next couple of days.

Behind a cold front sagging southward across the Plains,
temperatures will be around 10-20 degrees below average for early
June. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be commonplace for the
heart of the nation. While temperatures cool across the
mid-section of the country, the opposite will occur along the East
coast. The recent prolonged period of below average temperatures
will be replaced by an increasing area of above average
temperatures from the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, east into
nearly all of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds
across these regions. High temperatures will range around 10-15
degrees above average and will reach the upper 80s to even the low
90s for region in the Northeast by the end of the week. The
exception to the above average temperatures in the East will be
across Florida and the coastal Southeast where temperatures will
be below average due to the presence of tropical moisture under
the upper-level low.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$