603
FXUS01 KWBC 080754
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024

...Winter storm brings significant heavy snowfall and blizzard
conditions to portions of Colorado and New Mexico Friday...

...Showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash
flooding to the central/southern Plains Friday and Lower
Mississippi Valley Saturday...

...Above average temperatures continue for much of the country
heading into the weekend...

A significant heavy snow event is underway over portions of the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains early Friday. A vigorous
upper-level trough plunging southward has ushered in colder air
from the north as a low pressure system over western Texas helps
to funnel moist air from the Gulf northwestward over the region.
The compact nature of the upper low will help to sustain very
heavy snow rates of up to 1-2"/hr leading to snowfall totals of
4-8 inches for much of eastern Colorado and northeastern New
Mexico, with locally higher totals of 12-18" for the Palmer Divide
and Raton Mesa and 18-24" over higher elevations of the Front
Range mountains/foothills. The combination of heavy snow rates and
gusty winds will lead to blizzard conditions for some locations
and create difficult to impossible travel conditions for the I-25
corridor and eastern Plains, where numerous area roads are already
closed. The most intense snowfall should begin to taper off
overnight Friday, with some lighter snow possibly lingering into
Saturday morning.

Meanwhile to the east, on the warm side of the system, the influx
of Gulf moisture and increased instability will to lead to
widespread showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy rain
over the next couple of days. Storms currently over western
Oklahoma and northwest Texas will continue eastward along and
ahead of an eastward moving cold front during the day Friday. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covers much of
Oklahoma and central/northern Texas where locally heavy downpours
over saturated grounds may lead to some scattered instances of
flash flooding. Showers and storms with more moderate rainfall and
an isolated flash flooding threat are expected more broadly over
the central/southern Plains. The low pressure system will move
northeastward across the central Plains Saturday with an expanding
area of showers and thunderstorms along an arcing occluded/cold
front over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Areas of the Lower
Tennessee/Mississippi Valley will see more intense storms feeding
off higher instability and moisture streaming northward from
Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico bringing additional
rounds of very heavy rainfall. Localized totals of 3-5" over
saturated grounds from recent rains will lead to threat for more
scattered instances of flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall in effect here as well. While moisture from
Rafael will help to increase this heavy rainfall threat, the storm
itself is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
remain well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and dissipate.

A Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to
the Pacific Northwest Friday/Saturday with moderate to heavy
rainfall possible and snow for high elevations of the local
mountains. Precipitation chances with lower elevation rain and
high elevation snow will spread into the northern Rockies on
Saturday. Elsewhere, some widely scattered light showers are
possible head of cold fronts over the interior Northeast and
coastal Southeast Friday. Temperature-wise, most of the country
will continue to see above average conditions outside of the Four
Corners Region and central/southern Plains under the influence of
the deep upper-low. Forecast highs over the central/eastern U.S.
Friday will range from the 50s and low 60s for the northern
Plains/Midwest/New England, 60s across the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Ohio Valley, 60s and 70s for the Mid-Atlantic, and 70s and
80s for the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Gusty winds and extremely dry
conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England have prompted Red Flag Warnings for the risk of wildfires
Friday. A cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to portions of the East Coast Saturday, with highs
dropping into the 40s and 50s for New England and the 50s and 60s
in the Mid-Atlantic. In the West, highs will be in the 50s and 60s
for the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern California with 70s
into southern California. As noted, temperatures will be much
cooler and below average in the Four Corners region as highs top
out in the 40s and 50s, with 60s and 70s into the Desert
Southwest. Highs across the central/southern Plains will be in the
30s and 40s Friday, warming a bit for the southern High Plains
into the 50s and 60s Saturday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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