811
FXUS01 KWBC 051831
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 06 2025 - 00Z Sat Feb 08 2025

...Winter storm to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes region
through the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a
combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain later today through
Thursday...

...Unsettled weather to persist across the Western U.S. as a new
threat of heavy rainfall/snows for California on Thursday/Friday...


...Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions will exist across
much of New Mexico into adjacent southern High Plains...

...Record high temperatures are expected across much of the
Southern U.S. over the next few days...

An upper-level wave of low pressure is breaking off from static
deep layer low over the Pacific Northwest and is sliding through
the northern Rockies, this is influencing return moisture out of
the Gulf, combining with remaining mid-level moisture from the
Atmospheric River surge over the past few days and lifting across
a strong frontal boundary that is starting to lift as a warm front
ahead of a surface low emerging from the central Rockies today.
Lingering cooler air at the surface across the eastern Plains into
the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes  will bring a widespread swath of
heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain later today and into the
overnight before emerging across the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic tonight into Thursday.  Winter Weather Advisories are
up within the region with and Ice Storm Warning up for portions of
the highest ridges of the Appalachians from western PA through W
MD, Eastern WV, and northwest VA likely resulting in dangerous
travel conditions with ice accumulations of 0.25-0.5" possible in
those warning areas.  Scattered power outages and tree damage will
be possible from the weight of the ice.

 South of the lifting warm front through the Ohio and Tennessee
River Valleys will bring chances of some convective activity that
may present heavy rainfall over harder, cold, saturated soil
conditions that may result in some local flooding concerns
Wednesday evening and into Thursday afternoon as the wave passes
across KY, S WV, W VA and E TN, resulting in Marginal Risk (Level
1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall areas issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.

South of the strong front, well above normal (20-30 degrees)
temperatures will continue across the Southern Rocky States into
the Southern Plains today, spreading across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Deep South by Thursday and Friday.  A few record High
temperatures are probable to be broken over the next three days
with temps reaching the high 70s and upper 80s.   Strong winds out
of the southern Rockies will also provide a drying effect and
increase fire weather concerns today into Thursday mainly in New
Mexico, but expanding into adjacent states.  Today, the Storm
Prediction Center has a Critical Fire Area (Level 2 of 3) for
central and east-central NM with a broader Elevated Risk area in
similar locations for Thursday and Red Flag Warnings have been
posted for much of these risk areas.

The persistent deep layer low center across the Pacific Northwest
after shedding some energy to the east today will continue to
elongate and weaken slowly through the weekend with little
movement.  A central Pacific low will be drawn eastward and will
strengthen Thursday and reach the Northwest coast of California
Thursday evening before moving into the Great Basin overnight into
Friday.  This wave is more compact and quick moving but will bring
a surge of moisture to the coastal ranges and through the central
Valley into the Sierra Nevada resulting in heavy rainfall with
some potential for additional localized flooding concerns. This
new surge of Pacific moisture will also lead to a new round of
very heavy snowfall for the northern Rockies with an additional 1
to 2+ feet of accumulating snow possible through Friday, though
some of this will also begin to eject east out into the northern
Plains to end the week.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$