868
FXUS01 KWBC 081953
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 09 2025 - 00Z Sat Oct 11 2025

...Moisture will increase in the Southwest ahead of Hurricane
Priscilla over the next few days leading to a threat of flash
flooding...

...Developing coastal low will begin to bring the threat of
coastal flooding, gusty winds, and heavy rain to the East Coast
late this week...

Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in the Southwest along
a lingering frontal boundary through portions of central/western
New Mexico and eastern Arizona. Above average moisture and
instability will lead to some locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for some isolated instances of flash flooding. Then, on
Thursday, thunderstorms will begin to greatly expand in coverage
across the Southwest/Four Corners Region as abundant moisture from
Priscilla begins to flow into the region. Widespread, heavy
downpours will bring the threat of flash flooding, with Slight
Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for the Colorado River
Valley into northern Arizona/southern Utah Thursday, and northern
Arizona to the Four Corners Friday. More isolated instances of
flash flooding can be expected elsewhere across the region. The
flash flood threat will be especially concerning for the usual
terrain sensitive areas including burn scars, slot canyons, and
urban areas. The repeated rounds of thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall are expected to last at least into the weekend, with a
continued flash flood threat that will become only more concerning
as antecedent conditions become more saturated.

In the eastern U.S., some thunderstorms will be possible into
Thursday along a sagging cold front draped from the coastal
Carolinas southwest to the Gulf Coast. More widespread storms are
expected southward through central/South Florida with some
isolated flash flooding possible. A more impactful coastal low off
the southeastern U.S. is forecast to begin deepening by later this
week, bringing an increasing chance for coastal flooding, gusty
winds, and heavy rain along much of the East Coast into the
weekend. For Thursday/Friday, the initial threats will likely be
increased rip currents and coastal flooding, as well as the
potential for some heavier rainfall, along the Carolinas, Georgia,
and Florida Coast. Some isolated flash flooding will be possible
Friday.

Elsewhere, an upper-level wave/surface frontal system will bring
the chance for some showers to the Upper Midwest late Thursday and
into the day Friday. A slow-moving Pacific system will bring
increasing precipitation chances inland across the Pacific
Northwest/northern California though Thursday and into the
northern Great Basin/Rockies by Friday. Some snow may mix in for
the highest mountain peaks, though the chance for accumulating
snow will likely hold off until the weekend.

Much cooler, below average, Fall temperatures continue to
overspread much of the eastern U.S. following the passage of a
cold front. Highs Thursday/Friday will be mainly in the 50s and
60s across much of the Midwest/Northeast, with some moderation by
Friday for the Midwest. Morning lows into the 30s have prompted
Frost/Freeze-related Advisories across parts of the Upper Midwest
and Interior Northeast for Thursday morning, and for coastal New
England southwestward through the central Appalachians for Friday
morning. Meanwhile, above average conditions are expected across
much of the Plains and Interior West, with highs into the 70s and
80s, and some 90s in Texas and the Desert Southwest. A slowly
approaching system from the Pacific will bring cooler temperatures
to the West Coast, with highs mainly in the 60s north and 70s
south.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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