295
FXUS01 KWBC 032001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the
northern Plains for the 4th of July with lingering areas of heavy
rainfall possible across western Texas and Florida.

...Strong thunderstorms will be possible for Friday and Saturday
across most of the Plains and along the Upper Midwest as a front
enters the region...

Heat will be migrating eastwards from the Great Lakes region
towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend, with notable
population centers entering the Major Heat Risk category...

In general, the forecast weather pattern has not changed from
yesterday`s thoughts. For the 4th of July, there will still be
ample moisture at the surface across the Southwest. The flooding
risk may not be as high as previous days, but a Marginal Risk
continues across areas of western Texas where locally heavy rain
amounts could prompt flash flooding, especially in low lying
areas. Florida will continue to see abundant showers and
thunderstorms on Friday with the combination of lowering pressures
around a decaying frontal boundary. Some areas along the Tampa Bay
region may see locally heavy rain, even for July standards in the
region, which could produce ponding in low-lying locations. For
the High Plains into Minnesota, some stronger, organized storms
could fire along a cold front moving into the region tomorrow.
Training of linear storm clusters could drop 2-3 inches of
rainfall and thus WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4).

The 4th of July could be stormy for much of the central and
northern Plains. Energy from a shortwave trough within the broader
trough moving in from the west should spark organized
thunderstorms from Kansas to North Dakota over the next few days.
The northern Rockies and upper Midwest could also see locally
strong storms on Saturday with the proximity to a cold front
moving into the area. The main hazards should be strong winds with
storm clusters that organize. Some hail will also be possible in
super-cellular structures. The Storm Prediction Center also
continues to show an Elevated fire weather risk across the Great
Basin tomorrow with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

For temperatures on the 4th of July, most of the West, southern
Plains, and Northeast should see temperatures slightly below
average for this time of the year. Highs in the West will see 70s
and 60s in the northern parts of the region, while the southern
part of the West still reaches the lower to middle 80s. The Desert
Southwest will be in the low 100s and plenty warm still. The
rainfall will keep temperatures in check around Texas and Florida
with highs mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front will clear the
Northeast and bring lower humidity with maximum temperatures in
the 70s and the 80s. The hotpot for the 4th will be the Midwest
and Ohio Valley with high temperatures in the middle 90s. This
heat will shift towards the east coast into the early work week
and late weekend. Residents in cities from the Great Lakes to the
urban corridor by Sunday and Monday will want to drink plenty of
water and take cool breaks.



Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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