558
FXUS01 KWBC 240750
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 24 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 26 2025

...Extremely dangerous heat persists from the Midwest to East
Coast this week...

...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding across much of central New Mexico today...

...Additional excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorm concerns
from the Front Range to the Midwest...


A strong upper ridge centered over the East will generate a
dangerous heat wave this week. Extreme heat warnings and/or heat
advisories currently extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Midwest to the East Coast, affecting nearly 160 million people.
Extreme heat is expected to last through much of this week with
the longest duration of well above average temperatures centered
over the eastern Ohio Valley into Friday. Numerous daily record
highs and warm low temperatures are expected from the Midwest
through much of the East Coast through Wednesday. Widespread high
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with triple
digits possible along the East Coast. Meanwhile, overnight lows
are forecast to only drop into the 70s, with urban centers along
the East Coast struggling to drop below 80 degrees at night. The
most significant cumulative heat impacts are anticipated across
the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday and eastern Ohio Valley into
Friday, leading to several consecutive days of oppressive heat.
This will exacerbate the heat health impacts especially by
midweek. This level of heat can be dangerous to anyone without
adequate cooling and/or hydration. Heat related illnesses increase
significantly during long duration heat waves such as this. Take
action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Another area of concern is in the Central U.S., where an upper
trough with shortwave energy riding along its leading edge will
produce thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Anomalous moisture
interacting with the aforementioned shortwave energy and a surface
trough/dryline will produce storms across New Mexico tonight. A
moderate risk (at least 40%) of excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding is in effect for central New Mexico today, where
many areas are likely to receive over 1.5 inches. Sensitive burn
scar areas in the Sacramento Mountains are especially susceptible
to flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Upslope areas of the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains are also particularly
vulnerable to flash flooding today. A slight risk (at least 15%)
of excessive rainfall remains over central New Mexico on
Wednesday, with the Sacramento Mountains being of particular
concern yet again. Plenty of cloud cover from the troughing and
storms will drop daytime highs to between 20-30 degrees below
average.

A quasi-stationary front draped across the Central Plains and
Midwest will support thunderstorms, some isolated severe, and the
potential for excessive rainfall through Wednesday. There`s a
slight risk of excessive rainfall extending from northeastern
Colorado to southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois today. Moisture
presence increases on Wednesday, so a higher end slight risk is in
effect from southern Nebraska to eastern Wisconsin. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms across parts of the Central/Northern High Plains
where storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be likely this afternoon and evening. The severe threat
shifts into the Southeast on Wednesday as a mid-level vortex
retrogrades into the Florida Peninsula from the western Atlantic.
SPC issued a pair of slight risk areas, one over the Carolinas and
one across southern Alabama/Florida panhandle. Severe wind gusts
will be possible for much of the Southeast as a result.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$