358
FXUS01 KWBC 071857
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 00Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...Active severe weather setup from the southern Plains to the
Southeast this weekend and into Monday...

...Heavy showers & thunderstorms to pose both a flash flooding and
severe weather threat in parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic...

...Stifling heat dome to build in throughout much of the West and
the western Gulf Coast; hottest temperatures compared to normal
centered in the Northwest...

A series of frontal systems will be responsible for a wet and
stormy weekend and upcoming Monday across the southern and eastern
U.S.. Focusing on the Southern Tier of the Lower 48 to start, a
hot and steamy air-mass is in place ahead of a frontal boundary
that stretches from the southern High Plains to as far east as the
Northeast coast. Severe storms are anticipated this afternoon and
into tonight from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles to the southern
Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is most concerned
with severe weather potential in the Mid-South where an Enhanced
Risk (threat level 3/5) is present over northern Mississippi,
northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and southern Tennessee.
Damaging winds are the greatest concern there, while the rest of
the previously mentioned regions of the South could see any
combination of damaging winds, large hail, or tornadoes. In
addition to the severe weather, flash flooding is also of concern
from the ArkLaTex on east across the Mid-South where WPC has a
Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) through tonight. Sunday`s severe
weather potential is even greater with SPC placing a Moderate Risk
(threat level 4/5) along the Red River Valley of southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas. Powerful storms capable of generating
exceptional wind gusts and significant hail are possible in the
Southern Plains, as well as Excessive Rainfall, which has prompted
WPC to issue a Slight Risk from the Texas Panhandle on east along
the Red River and into the ArkLaTex region. A Slight Risk (threat
level 2/5) for severe weather is also present in portions of the
Middle Mississippi Valley. By Monday, the cold front starts to
move a little farther south and east, but it is still likely to
trigger additional severe storms throughout the South. SPC does
have a sizable Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the South Carolina/Georgia coast.

Farther north, another frontal system is the culprit in igniting
numerous showers and severe storms across the Upper Midwest and
Northeast today. SPC does have a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5)
in the Northern Plains as a cold front approaches from southern
Canada. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Ohio Valley feature saturated
soils and training showers and storms; an ideal recipe for flash
flooding this evening and into tonight. WPC has a pair of Slight
Risks in these regions through early Sunday morning. The Excessive
Rainfall threat persists in the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary and no shortage of
atmospheric moisture support additional areas of flash flooding. A
Slight Risk is being introduced for these regions for Sunday,
including the DC/Baltimore metro areas. Monday features an
expansive Marginal Risk area for Excessive Rainfall that stretches
from the Tennessee Valley on north through the northern
Mid-Atlantic. Areas most prone to flash flooding on Monday will
likely be portions of the Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and northern Mid-Atlantic where soils will only continue to grow
more and more saturated following the stormy weather over the
weekend.

While the South and East are mired in an active weather pattern,
the West will be mostly dry this weekend and into Monday. The lone
exceptions are the elevated regions of the Intermountain West
which include mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada, the Great
Basin, the Wasatch, the Mogollon Rim, and as far east as the
Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. These areas can see diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The Desert
Southwest and Pacific Northwest will not only be dry, but grow
increasingly hot each day into early next week. The hottest
temperatures compared to normal will be found in the Northwest
with daily record high temps both Sunday and Monday. By Monday,
daytime highs in parts of Oregon and Washington will make a run at
the century mark. There are Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Watches that remain in effect for the Pacific Northwest both
Sunday and Monday to highlight the stifling heat that HeatRisk
suggests will sport Moderate to Major Risks for heat-related
impacts. Please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more
information on HeatRisk. Similar Moderate-to-Major HeatRisk
potential exists in the Great Valley of California, the Great
Basin, the Mojave Desert, and into the Lower Colorado River Basin
both Sunday and Monday. High temperatures are forecast to easily
reach the 90s and even the 100s (particularly the Mojave and Lower
Colorado Basin) each day. Note that searing heat is also on tap
from South Texas on east through southern Louisiana. Spotty Heat
Advisories are in effect over West Texas while HeatRisk depicts
widespread Major Impacts (heat that effects anyone without
effective cooling/hydration) from the Rio Grande Valley on east
through the Houston metropolitan area and into southern Louisiana
through Monday.


Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$