659
FXUS01 KWBC 020746
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Aug 04 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and Southern High Plains on
Saturday, and Central/Southern Plains and the Southeast on
Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest...

A front extending from the Southeast westward to the Southern
Plains will remain quasi-stationary through Monday. The front will
trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over
parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily
create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, moisture will surge over the Southern Appalachians,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Appalachians through
Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop along and near the boundary over parts of the Southern
High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over two areas of the Southern High
Plains through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will
primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

In addition to the heavy rain over the Southern High Plains,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains through Sunday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional tornadoes.

On Sunday, an area of heavy rain is expected to develop over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains due to showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from
Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

Moreover, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains from Sunday through
Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail,
and occasional tornadoes.

Additionally, on Sunday, moisture and the stationary front will
produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over
parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Southeast from Sunday through Monday morning.
The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality
Alerts over the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley,
Central Plains, and parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$