761
FXUS01 KWBC 101954
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 13 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southwest on Friday and the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains
on Friday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern
Plains on Thursday will retreat to the Southern Mid-Atlantic by
Saturday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from
the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains, producing heavy
rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians on Thursday into Friday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being
the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop over parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday
morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Friday into
Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most
vulnerable.

A second front over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High
Plains on Thursday evening will move inland to the Upper Midwest
to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Saturday. The
boundary will produce rain over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region on Thursday evening and expand across parts
of the Northern High Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.

Moreover, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains on Friday through Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

On Friday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and continue
into Saturday evening. The showers and thunderstorms will produce
heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains on Saturday into Sunday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas,
and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday evening. On
Saturday morning, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic and become showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast Mid-Atlantic, extending
southward to Florida and along the Gulf Coast.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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