511
FXUS01 KWBC 040752
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 04 2025 - 12Z Wed Aug 06 2025

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast on Monday and Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern/Central High Plains on Monday and Northern Plains on
Tuesday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the
Northeast...

...There are Extreme Heat Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings over
parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest...

A front extending from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast
to the Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through
Wednesday. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms,
accompanied by heavy rain, over parts of the Southeast. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, upper-level energy and a steady source of moisture
will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional tornadoes.
There is an additional threat of hail two inches or greater over
the region.

Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain
Region, and Southern Plains from the late afternoon into the late
evening on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop
over parts of the Ohio Valley.

On Tuesday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a
lingering boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast/southern
Mid-Atlantic from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, a strong upper-level impulse will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail,
and minimal threat for tornadoes.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes southward to the Gulf
Coast and parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, smoke from
wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northeast
on Monday.

Furthermore, an intensifying upper-level high over the Southwest
will produce upward-trending temperatures across the Desert
Southwest. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid-110s by
Tuesday. The most significant heat is forecast to focus over
central and southern Arizona with widespread Major to Extreme Heat
Risk. A Widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat Risk will also
extend into southern California. There are Extreme Heat Watches
and Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest. Stay informed and take steps to protect
yourself from heat-related illnesses. For information on staying
cool and safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures
rise, limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to
air-conditioning and other cooling areas.



Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$