394
FXUS01 KWBC 180721
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Apr 20 2025

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies on
Friday and Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Friday and a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains on Friday and from the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains on
Saturday...

A front extending from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains and
then across the Central Rockies into the Southwest will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast and then from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Southern Plains by Sunday morning. On Friday, the system will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to
the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley
to the Southern Plains through Saturday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore,
there is an added threat of hail, two inches or greater, over the
Southern Plains.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on
Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
into the Southern Plains through Saturday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Great Lakes on Friday and continue into Saturday. Rain with
embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast by
Friday evening.

Moreover, the upper-level low associated with the front on Friday
will produce moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Central
Rockies. Rain will also develop over the lower elevations of the
Southwest and Central High Plains.

On Saturday, as the front moves southeastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains
from Saturday into Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is an
added threat of hail, two inches or greater, over the Southern
Plains.

The threat of excessive rainfall will increase on Saturday over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
into the Southern Plains from Saturday into Sunday morning.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible and many streams may
flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Ohio
Valley to the Northeast on Saturday, ending over the Northeast by
Sunday morning.

Furthermore, on Saturday, the upper-level low over the
Central/Southern Rockies will produce moderate to heavy snow over
parts of the region. Lower-elevation rain will also develop over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday. The snow
will end over the region by Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, late Friday night, a new front will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest and move eastward to the Northern High
Plains to the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin by Sunday
morning. The system will produce rain and the highest-elevation
snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$